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Clubs de convergence et croissance. Le rôle du développement financier et du capital humain

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  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Aristomène Varoudakis

Abstract

[eng] Convergence clubs and growth : the role of financial development and human capital.. . The purpose of this paper is to assess the existence of threshold effects in economic growth, linked to the development of the financial sector. We, first, discuss the possibility of multiple steady state equilibria due to reciprocal externalities between the banking sector and the real sector. Growth in the real sector causes the financial market to expand, increasing therefore banking competition and efficiency. In return, the development of the banking sector raises the net yield on savings and accelerates growth. To check the existence of multiple steady states, associated with both financial development and edu­cational development, we perform stability tests on a « Barro-type » conditional 6-convergence equation. Optimal splits of our 91-country sample are then estimated through a maximum likelihood method. We thus define « convergence clubs », characterised by educational and banking sector development indicators, which exhibit specific behaviour as regards the factors determining long-run growth. [fre] Clubs de convergence et croissance Le rôle du développement financier et du capital humain. . L'objet de cet article est de tester l'existence d'un effet de seuil en matière de croissance économique, lié au développement du secteur financier. Les équilibres multiples peuvent apparaître en raison d'une extemalité réciproque entre le secteur financier et le secteur réel. La recherche des effets de seuil procède selon une méthodologie de recherche de « clubs de convergence ». Il s'agit de vérifier, à partir d'une équation de (3-convergence conditionnelle « à la Barro », la présence de points de rupture de l'échantillon d'estimation. De tels points de rupture sont décelés à la fois en fonction d'un critère de développement financier et d'un critère de développement éducatif. Les points de rupture optimaux sont identifiés par maximisation de la vraisemblance. Chacun des « clubs de convergence » ainsi définis présente des caractéristiques propres du point de vue des facteurs déterminant la croissance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy & Aristomène Varoudakis, 1995. "Clubs de convergence et croissance. Le rôle du développement financier et du capital humain," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(2), pages 217-235.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_2_409640
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1995.409640
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409640
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    1. Philippe Hugon, 1996. "Incertitude, précarité et financement local : le cas des économies africaines," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(145), pages 13-40.
    2. Jude Eggoh, 2012. "Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 711-725, June.
    3. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    4. Sophie Brana, 1999. "Systèmes financiers et croissance en Méditerranée : une analyse comparative," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 207-233.
    5. Audrey Chouchane-Verdier, 2004. "Une analyse empirique de l'impact de la libéralisation financière en Afrique subsaharienne sur la période 1983-1996," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(179), pages 617-641.
    6. Fouda Owoundi, Jean-Pierre, 2009. "La convergence des politiques économiques dans la zone franc : où en est-on 15 ans après?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(3), pages 319-354, septembre.

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