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Sélection et tests de seuils de convergence

  • Philippe Jean-Pierre
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    [fre] Cet article propose une méthodologie différente de celle de Durlauf et John­son [1992] permettant de tester et de localiser les seuils séparant les différents processus de convergence. La particularité de notre approche est d'utiliser une procédure simple reposant sur des estimations récursives sur des données réor­données et permettant de sélectionner les différents régimes de croissance par une analyse graphique des indicateurs récursifs (t de student, résidus). Une appli­cation de cette procédure à un échantillon de 91 pays permet de mettre clairement en évidence deux processus de convergence selon le niveau initial du PIB par tête. [eng] The purpose of this article is to present a method different from Durlauf and Johnson [1992], to test the existence of thresholds and to determine their position in order to identify convergence clubs. The originality of our approach, based on recursive estimations, is to use a graphical analysis of several indicators (t-ratio, predictive residuals), to localize the different thresholds. An illustrative application of this procedure over a sample of 91 countries clearly reveals the presence of two convergence processes associated with the initial level of GDP per capita.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 429-440

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_3_409884
    Note: DOI:10.2307/3502830
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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