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Sélection et tests de seuils de convergence

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  • Philippe Jean-Pierre

Abstract

[fre] Cet article propose une méthodologie différente de celle de Durlauf et John­son [1992] permettant de tester et de localiser les seuils séparant les différents processus de convergence. La particularité de notre approche est d'utiliser une procédure simple reposant sur des estimations récursives sur des données réor­données et permettant de sélectionner les différents régimes de croissance par une analyse graphique des indicateurs récursifs (t de student, résidus). Une appli­cation de cette procédure à un échantillon de 91 pays permet de mettre clairement en évidence deux processus de convergence selon le niveau initial du PIB par tête. [eng] The purpose of this article is to present a method different from Durlauf and Johnson [1992], to test the existence of thresholds and to determine their position in order to identify convergence clubs. The originality of our approach, based on recursive estimations, is to use a graphical analysis of several indicators (t-ratio, predictive residuals), to localize the different thresholds. An illustrative application of this procedure over a sample of 91 countries clearly reveals the presence of two convergence processes associated with the initial level of GDP per capita.

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  • Philippe Jean-Pierre, 1997. "Sélection et tests de seuils de convergence," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 429-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1997_num_48_3_409884
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1997.409884
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1997.409884
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    2. Théophile T. Azomahou & Jalal El Ouardighi & Phu Nguyen Van & Thi Kim Cuong Pham, 2006. "Estimation semi-paramétrique de la convergence des régions européennes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 97-110.
    3. Claude Diebolt, 2022. "Regard rétrospectif et cliométrique sur une étape de la construction européenne. Les activités innovantes : 1981-2001," Working Papers 03-22, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Claude Diebolt, 2022. "Regard rétrospectif et cliométrique sur une étape de la construction européenne – Les activités innovantes : 1981-2001," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 46(1), pages 5-17, September.
    5. Claude DIEBOLT & Karine PELLIER, 2009. "La convergence des activités innovantes en Europe. Les enseignements de l’économétrie spatiale appliquée à l’histoire du temps présent," Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), issue 40, pages 805-831, May.
    6. REY, Serge, 2005. "Convergence réelle et convergence nominale dans les Pays de la région MENA [Real and nominal convergence amongst MENA countries]," MPRA Paper 30206, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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