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La France en 1986 : bilan et perspectives macro-économiques


  • Charles Wyplosz


[fre] La France en 1986 : bilan et perspectives macro-économiques. . Cet article propose d'analyser l'évolution du chômage à partir du seuil de chômage non inflationniste (SCNI), c'est-à-dire du taux en dessous duquel l'inflation augmente. Les résultats font apparaître une montée constante de ce seuil et permettent de l'interpréter par la montée des coûts du travail. Cette hausse des coûts est elle-même expliquée, d'une part, par la hausse des salaires nets, probablement basée sur une attente trop optimiste en ce qui concerne les gains de productivité, et, d'autre part, par l'accroissement des prélèvements obligatoires sur le revenu du travail. C'est ce dernier facteur qui paraît le plus aisé à corriger: l'article se termine par une discussion des mesures susceptibles de réduire le chômage dans les années à venir. [eng] France in 1986 : macroeconomic assessment and perspectives. . The French economy is back on a growth trend with moderate inflation. While this is good news, current widespread optimism is not warranted for three reasons : forecasted growth is slow, unemployment is expected to remain high, and investment does not seem to recover. The general reaction to these difficulties is to relie on supply-side measures such as deregulation of exchange and financial markets, the end of price controls, a reduction of state interventions, privatization, etc... While helpful, these measures may well fall short of what is needed. This article studies the reasons for lasting high unemployment and suggests a programme to cope with it, based on labor tax reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Wyplosz, 1987. "La France en 1986 : bilan et perspectives macro-économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(3), pages 677-702.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1987_num_38_3_408994
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1987.408994

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Artus, Patrick & Laroque, Guy & Michel, Gilles, 1984. "Estimation of a Quarterly Macroeconomic Model with Quantity Rationing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1387-1414, November.
    2. Sneessens, Henri R & Dreze, Jacques H, 1986. "A Discussion of Belgian Unemployment, Combining Traditional Concepts and Disequilibrium Econometrics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 89-119, Supplemen.
    3. Calmfors, Lars & Horn, Henrik, 1986. "Employment Policies and Centralized Wage-Setting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(211), pages 281-302, August.
    4. Jacques R. Artus, 1984. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Disequilibrium Real Wage Rate Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-193.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Oswald, Andrew J, 1982. "The Microeconomic Theory of the Trade Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 576-595, September.
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