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Insécurité de l'emploi : le rôle protecteur de l'ancienneté a-t-il baissé en France ? Suivi d'un commentaire de Fabien Postel-Vinay

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  • Luc Behaghel
  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

Abstract

[ger] Unsicherheit des Arbeitsplatzes: hat die Betriebszugehörigkeit in Frankreich noch die gleiche Schutzfunktion? . . Die Unsicherheit des Arbeitsplatzes, die durch die Quote des jährlichen Übergangs von der Erwerbstätigkeit zur Erwerbslosigkeit gemessen wird, hat zwischen 1975 und 2000 in Frankreich erheblich zugenommen. Im Gegensatz zu der in den Vereinigten Staaten beobachteten Entwicklung wurden dabei aber die Arbeitnehmer mit medianer Dienstzugehörigkeit bemerkenswert geschont. Der Anstieg der Unsicherheit konzentriert sich auf die Arbeitnehmer mit einer Betriebszugehörigkeit von weniger als zehn Jahren und die Arbeitnehmer von über 55 Jahren. Diese Ergebnisse lassen sich nicht nur mit technologischen Schocks, dem Anstieg der Unsicherheit oder der Entwicklung des Beschäftigungsschutzes erklären. Die Hypothese einer Abnahme der langfristigen Arbeitsverträge ohne Kündigung der bestehenden Verträge ist mit den wichtigsten festgestellten Sachverhalten vereinbar; insbesondere ermöglicht sie eine Interpretation des Unterschieds gegenüber den Vereinigten Staaten und bietet einen Ansatz für die Erklärung, weshalb in diesem Zeitraum in Frankreich die Vorruhestandsregelungen beibehalten wurden. [fre] Insécurité de l’emploi: le rôle protecteur de l’ancienneté a-t-il baissé en France? . . L’insécurité de l’emploi, mesurée par le taux de transition annuel des hommes de l’emploi vers le nonemploi, a considérablement augmenté entre 1975 et 2000 en France. Mais au contraire de ce qui a été observé aux États-Unis, les salariés anciens d’âge médian ont été remarquablement épargnés. La hausse de l’insécurité s’est concentrée sur les salariés de moins de dix ans d’ancienneté et sur les salariés de plus de 55 ans. Ces résultats ne peuvent s’interpréter uniquement par des chocs technologiques, par la hausse de l’incertitude ou par l’évolution de la protection de l’emploi. L’hypothèse d’un déclin des contrats de long terme sans rupture des contrats existants est compatible avec les principaux faits observés; elle permet en particulier d’interpréter la différence constatée avec les États-Unis et offre une piste d’explication du maintien des préretraites sur la période en France. [eng] Job Insecurity: Has the Protective Role of Seniority Diminished in France? . . Job insecurity, measured by the annual male rate of transition from employment to non-employment, rose sharply in France from 1975 to 2000. Yet, contrary to the observation in the United States, long-standing employees of median age were remarkably spared. The rise in insecurity was concentrated among employees with less than ten years’ seniority and employees over 55 years old. These findings cannot be explained solely by technological shocks, the increase in uncertainty and the development of employment protection. The assumption of a decrease in long-term contracts without terminating existing contracts is compatible with the main facts observed. This can, in particular, explain the observed divergence from the United States and offer a way of explaining the continued use of early retirement in France over the period. [spa] Inseguridad del empleo: ¿ Ha disminuido en Francia el papel protector de la antigüedad? . . La inseguridad del empleo medida por la tasa de transición anual de los hombres del empleo hacia el desempleo ha aumentado con creces entre 1975 y 2000 en Francia. Pero al contrario de lo registrado en los Estados Unidos, los asalariados con bastante antigüedad y de edad mediana han sido muy protegidos. El alza de la inseguridad se ha concentrado en los asalariados con menos de diez años de antigüedad y en los asalariados de más de 55 años. Estos resultados sólo pueden interpretarse por unos choques tecnológicos, por el alza de la incertidumbre o por la evolución de la protección del empleo. La hipótesis de un declive de los contratos de largo plazo sin ruptura de los contratos existentes es compatible con los principales hechos observados; ésta permite interpretar en particular la diferencia registrada con los Estados Unidos y brinda una pista de explicación del mantenimiento de las prejubilaciones en el periodo en Francia.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Behaghel & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2003. "Insécurité de l'emploi : le rôle protecteur de l'ancienneté a-t-il baissé en France ? Suivi d'un commentaire de Fabien Postel-Vinay," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 366(1), pages 3-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2003_num_366_1_7312
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2003.7312
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2003.7312
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    1. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Anne Saint-Martin, 2004. "Comment les salariés perçoivent-ils la protection de l'emploi ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 372(1), pages 41-59.
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    Cited by:

    1. Caroli, Eve, 2007. "Internal Versus External Labour Flexibility: The Role of Knowledge Codification," National Institute Economic Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 201, pages 107-118, July.
    2. Eve Caroli, 2007. "Internal versus external labour flexibility: the role of knowledge codification," Post-Print halshs-00754222, HAL.
    3. Luc Behaghel & Eve Caroli & Emmanuelle Walkowiak, 2012. "Information and communication technologies and skill upgrading: the role of internal vs external labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 490-517, July.
    4. Christophe Ramaux, 2005. "" Sécurité sociale professionnelle " ou " sécurité emploi-formation " : une solution au chômage en trompe-l'oeil ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r05060, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    5. Luc Behagel & Eve Caroli & Emmanuelle Walkowiak, 2007. "Innovation and Skill Upgrading : The Role of External vs Internal Labour Markets," Working Papers 2007-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Karakaya, Güngör, 2008. "Early cessation of activity in the labour market: impact of supply and demand factors," MPRA Paper 13390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christophe Ramaux, 2005. "Les emplois ne sont pas plus instables : explications et incidences sur la régulation de l'emploi," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00801412, HAL.
    8. Christophe Ramaux, 2004. "L'introuvable instabilité croissante de l'emploi : et s'il n'existait pas de marché externe ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r04049, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    9. Christophe Ramaux, 2005. "“Flexicurity” or “lifelong learning”: a trompe-l’œil solution to unemployment ? ["Sécurité sociale professionnelle" ou "sécurité emploi-formation" : une solution au chômage en t," Post-Print halshs-00196091, HAL.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7247 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yannick L’Horty, 2004. "Instabilité de l’emploi : quelles ruptures de tendance?," Documents de recherche 04-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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