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Élargissement à l'Est et négociations commerciales internationales : quelle marge de manœuvre pour la PAC ?

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  • Chantal Le Mouël

Abstract

[fre] Élargissement à l'Est et négociations commerciales internationales : quelle marge de manœuvre pour la PAC ? . Dans le prolongement de l'analyse de la Commission européenne préalable à la réforme de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) de l'Agenda 2000, un exercice de simulation propose ici deux dimensions supplémentaires : l'adhésion des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale à^ l'Union européenne d'une part, deux contextes d'environnement économique très contrastés d'autre part. Les résultats suggèrent que pour respecter ses engagements internationaux en matière d'exportations subventionnées en volume, dans le cadre d'un élargissement, l'Union européenne devra engager de; nouveaux ajustements de la PAC à l'horizon 2010. Ces ajustements seraient toutefois d'ampleur variable selon la nature favorable ou moins favorable du contexte économique retenu dans la simulation. . Selon ces simulations - qui n'ont aucun caractère1 prévisionnel la PAC réformée en 1992, appliquée dans une Union européenne élargie aux pays d'Europe : centrale et orientale, deviendrait incompatible avec les engagements internationaux à l'exportation de l'Union si on se place dans un contexte de rattrapage rapide de la production agricole de ces pays et de conjoncture défavorable des marchés mondiaux agricoles. L'Union élargie enregistrerait alors des dépassements importants de ses engagements à l'exportation en volume pour la: quasi-totalité des produits, et les ajustements nécessaires : de la PAC seraient substantiels. En revanche ces ajustements pourraient rester limités dans la perspective d'un rattrapage lent de la production agricole des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, associé à une conjoncture: favorable des marchés mondiaux agricoles. [eng] Enlargement to the East and International Trade Talks : What is the CAP'S Room for Manœuvre? . A simulation exercise proposes two additional factors in : the extension of the European Commission analysis prior to the Agenda 2000 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform: . European Union membership for the Central and Eastern European countries and two highly different economic- environments.-.The findings suggest that, as regards enlargement, the European Union will have to make further adjustments to the CAP by 201 0 if it is to respect its international commitments in terms of subsidised export volumes. The extent of these adjustments nonetheless varies depending on how favourable the simulation's economic context is. . Although these simulations are in no way forecasts, they - suggest that the 1992 CAP reform applied to a European . Union including the Central and Eastern European countries would become incompatible with the EU's international: export commitments if the agricultural production of these countries were to rise suddenly and the international agricultural markets were on a downswing. The enlarged EU would consequently largely overrun its export volume commitments across virtually all products: and substantial adjustments would have to be made to the CAP. However, these adjustments could be confined if the agricultural production of the Central and Eastern European countries were to rise slowly and the international agricultural markets were on an upswing. [ger] Osterweiterung und internationale Handelsverhandiungen: . welcher Spielraum hat die GAP? . In Anknûpfung an die Analyse, die die Europâische Kommission vor der Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpoiitik (GAP) im Rahmen der Agenda 200CP vornahm, wird hier eine Simulation durchgefùhrt, die zwei zusâtzliche Dimensionen berûcksichtigt: einerseits den- Beitritt der mittel- und osteuropâischen Lânder zur, Europàischen Union und andererseits zwei sehr unterschiedliche wirtschaftliche Kontexte. Die Ergebnisse legen den SchluB nahe, da(3 die Europâische Union bis zunv Jahre 2010 aufgrund Erwei te rung neue. Anpassungen der GAP vornehmen muB, um ihre internationalen Verpflichtungen hinsichtlich der volumenmâRigen Exportsubventionen einhalten zu kônnen. Wie umfassend dièse Anpassungen sein: werden, hângt allerdings davon ab, ob man bei der Simulation von einem gûnstigen oder einem ungùnstigen wirtschaftlichen Umfeld ausgeht. . Diesen Simulationen zufolge, die keine Prognoses; darstellen, wûrde die 1992 reformierte GAP nach einer Erweiterung der Europàischen Union um die mittel- und ; osteuropâischen Lânder mit den internationalen1 Exportverpflichtungen der Union unvereinbar sein, wenn : dièse Lânder ihren Rùckstand in der Agrarproduktion rasch aufholen oder die Konjunktur der weltweiten Agrarmârkte ungùnstig ist. Die erweiterte Union wùrde dann bei nahezu alien Produkten ihre Verpflichtungen zur volumenmâBigen Exportbeschrànkung bei weiterm ûberschreiten, so da erhebliche Anpassungen der GAP erforderlich wùrden. Wenn dagegen die mittel- und osteuropâischen Lânder, ihren Rùckstand bei der Agrarproduktion langsamer aufholen und die Konjunktur, der weltweiten Agrarmârkte gùnstig isVkônnten dièse : Anpassungen begrenzt bleiben. [spa] Ampliaciôn al este y negociaciones comerciales internacionales : l que margen de maniobra para la PAC? . Inspirândose en el anélisis previo a la reforma de la PAC, de la Agenda 2000 de la Comisiôn europea, un ejercicio ï de simulaciôn propone aquf dos dimensiones mâs : la adhesion de los paîses de Europa central y oriental a la UE por un lado, dos entornos econômicos muy contrastados por otro lado. Los resultados muestran que para cumplir los compromisos internacionales en cuanto a exportaciones . subsidiadas en volumen, en el marco de una ampliaciôn, la Union Europea deberâ hacer nuevos ajustes a la PAC al horizonte 2010. Estas ajustes tendn'an sin embargo una amplitud variable segûn el carâcter favorable o no del contexto econômico que se escoja en la simulaciôn. . Segûn estas simulaciones - que no tienen el menor. carâcter preventivo -, la PAC reformada en 1 992, aplicada . en una Union Europea ampliada a los paises de Europa central y.oriental, no serîa compatible con los compromisos internacionales a la exportaciôn de la Union , si tomamos en cuenta un contexto de râpida recuperaciôn de la producciôn agn'cola de estos pafses y de coyuntura : negativa de los mercados mundiales agrfcolas. La Union ampliada sobrepasan'a sus compromisos a la exportaciôn en volumen para casi todos los productos, y serfan necesarios fuertes ajustes de la PAC. En cambio, los ajustes podrîan ser limitados en el caso de una recuperaciôn lenta de la producciôn agn'cola de los pafses de Europa central y oriental, asociada a una coyuntura favorable de los mercados mundiales agrfcolas.

Suggested Citation

  • Chantal Le Mouël, 1999. "Élargissement à l'Est et négociations commerciales internationales : quelle marge de manœuvre pour la PAC ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 329(1), pages 35-54.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1999_num_329_1_6353
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1999.6353
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1999.6353
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