IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

L'Asie du Sud-Est : quelles perspectives de croissance à moyen terme ?

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Marc Germain
  • Stéphanie Guichard

[spa] El sureste asiâtico : que perspectivas de crecimiento a medio plazo? Los pafses del Asia oriental atraviesan en la actualidad por una crisis profunda. Sin embargo, viene todavia al caso la cuestiôn de sus perspectivas de crecimiento a medio plazo. El modelo neoclâsico aumentado del capital humano parece ser el marco de referencia pertinente para semejante anâlisis. Da cuenta de manera bastante satisfactoria del crecimiento pasado de los Nuevos Pafses Industrializados (NPI), de Malasia, Tailandia e Indonesia. Permite subrayar el papel decisivo de los factores demogréficos, y también de la educaciôn y del ahorro en la fijaciôn del potencial de crecimiento de cada economfa. Este enfoque puede dar una idea del potencial de crecimiento de los pafses de esa zona en los prôximos decenios, ya superadas las dificultades actuales. Segûn este enfoque, los pafses asiâticos deben'an alcanzar el nivel de vida de los pafses desarrollados. Pero el nivel de recuperaciôn podrfa disminuir progresivamente, en especial para los NPI. Las economfas mâs dinâmicas se hallarfan entre los pafses de la ASEAN, la India y China : estos pafses representarfan mâs de dos veces el PIB americano en el 2030 contra menos del cuarto en 1990. En términos de renta per capita, seguirfan sin embargo atrasados. Este crecimiento se acompafïarfa de una modificaciôn de las especializaciones de estos pafses y de los intercambios dentro de la zona : salida al escenario de socios comerciales caracterizados por decenios aun por bajos salarios (China, ASEAN, la India) y aumento de los flujos comerciales internos asiâticos que ocuparân un espacio creciente dentro de los flujos mundiales. [ger] Die mittelfristigen Wachstumsperspektiven Sùdostasiens Die ostasiatischen Lander stecken derzeit in einer tiefen Krise. UngewiBheit herrscht jedoch nach wie vor ùber ihre mittelfristigen Wachstumsperspektiven. Fur eine solche Analyse scheint das neoklassische Modell unter Einbeziehung des Humankapitals der relevante Bezugsrahmen zu sein. Denn es gibt auf recht zufriedenstellende Weise Auskunft ûber das Wachstum, das Schweilenlânder wie Malaysia, Thailand und Indonésien in der Vergangenheit kannten. Mit ihm làBt sich die entscheidende Rolle der demographischen Faktoren, aber auch und vor allem der Ausbildung und der Spartâtigkeit bei der Ermittlung des Wachstumspotentials einer jeden Volkswirtschaft aufzeigen. Somit kann dieser Ansatz einige Anhaltspunkte ùber das Wachstumspotential liefern, das die Lânder in dieser Region, nachdem sie ihre derzeitigen Schwierigkeiten ûberwunden haben, in den kommenden Jahrzehnten aufweisen. Aus dieser Analyse geht hervor, dalB die asiatischen Lânder ihren Rùckstand, den sie hinsichtlich ihres Lebensstandards gegenùber den entwickelten Lândern haben, aller Voraussicht nach auch weiterhin aufholen. Allerdings kônnte sich das Tempo dieses Aufholprozesses allmâhlich verlangsamen, insbesondere in den Schwellenlândern. Die dynamischsten Volkswirtschaften wàren in den ASEAN-Làndern, in Indien und in China anzutreffen; denn sie wûrden im Jahre 2030 fur sich alleine mehr als zwei Drittel des amerikanischen BIP erwirtschaften, wàhrend es 1990 weniger als ein Viertel war. Was das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen anbetrifft, so wùrden dièse Lânder allerdings nach wie vor einen deutlichen Rùckstand verzeichnen. Dieses Wachstum wùrde mit einer Neuspezialisierung dieser Lander und Verânderungen beim Gùteraustausch innerhalb dieser Region einhergehen: Aufkommen von Handelspartnern, die sich noch jahrzehntelang durch Niedriglôhne auszeichnen werden (China, ASEAN, Indien) und Zunahme der innerasiatischen Handelsstrôme, die im Welthandel einen immer grôBeren Platz einnehmen werden. [eng] South-East Asia: Medium-Term Growth Prospects The East Asian countries are in the midst of a severe financial crisis. Yet the question of their medium-term growth prospects remains open. A pertinent frame of reference for such an analysis would appear to be the neoclassical model with an added human capital parameter. It gives a fairly satisfactory explanation of past growth in the Newly Industrialised Countries (NICs), Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. It highlights the decisive role of demographic factors and, more importantly, of education and savings in determining the growth potential of each economy. This approach can therefore provide some rough estimates of the growth potential of the countries in this area over the coming decades, once they have overcome their present problems. The findings of this approach are that the standard of living in the developed countries. However, the pace at which it catches up may gradually slow down, especially in the NICs. The most buoyant economies are expected be found in the ASEAN countries, India and China. The combined GDP of these countries alone, should be more than double American GDP by 2030, as opposed to less than one-quarter in 1 990. However, they will probably still lag far behind in per capita income. This growth is expected to go hand in hand with a shift in these countries' specialisations and trade within the area: a growing role for trading partners offering low wage costs for decades to come (China, ASEAN and India) and an intensification of intra-Asian trade flows, which will account for a growing proportion of world trade flows. [fre] L'Asie du Sud-Est : quelles perpectives de croissance à moyen terme ? Les pays d'Asie du Sud-Est traversent actuellement une crise profonde. La question de leurs perspectives de croissance à moyen terme reste cependant ouverte. Le modèle néoclassique augmenté du capital humain apparaît comme le cadre de référence pertinent pour une telle analyse. Il rend compte d'une manière assez satisfaisante de la croissance passée des Nouveaux Pays Industrialisés (NPI), de la Malaisie, de la Thaïlande et de l'Indonésie. Il permet de souligner le rôle décisif des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi et surtout de l'éducation et de l'épargne dans la détermination du potentiel de croissance de chaque économie. Cette approche peut donc fournir quelques ordres de grandeur du potentiel de croissance des pays de cette zone dans les prochaines décennies, une fois surmontées leurs difficultés actuelles. Selon cette approche, les pays d'Asie devraient continuer de rattraper le niveau de vie des pays développés. Le rythme de ce rattrapage pourrait néanmoins ralentir progressivement, en particulier dans les NPI. Les économies les plus dynamiques se rencontreraient dans les pays de l'ASEAN, l'Inde et la Chine : ils représenteraient à eux seuls plus de deux fois le PIB américain en 2030 contre moins du quart en 1 990. En termes de revenu par tête, ils resteraient toutefois encore nettement en retard. Cette croissance s'accompagnerait d'une modification des spécialisations de ces pays et des échanges à l'intérieur de la zone : montée sur le devant de la scène de partenaires commerciaux caractérisés pour des décennies encore par de bas salaires (Chine, ASEAN, Inde) et intensification des flux commerciaux internes à l'Asie qui occuperont une place croissante dans les flux d'échanges mondiaux.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/estat.1998.2605
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/estat_0336-1454_1998_num_311_1_2605
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

Volume (Year): 311 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 3-36

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1998_num_311_1_2605
Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1998.2605
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/estat

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer and Teresa Cyrus., 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-050, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," NBER Chapters,in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 53-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, July.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
  7. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.
  8. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
  9. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
  11. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  13. Cohen, Daniel, 1996. "Tests of the "Convergence Hypothesis": Some Further Results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 351-361, September.
  14. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Growth in East Asia; What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From it," IMF Working Papers 95/98, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Burda, Michael C & Funke, Michael, 1993. "Eastern Germany: Can't We Be More Optimistic?," CEPR Discussion Papers 863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
  17. Sala-i-Martin, X., 1994. "Regional Cohesion: Evidence and the Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence," Papers 716, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  18. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Growth in East Asia: What We Can and What We Cannot Infer From It," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Palle Andersen & Jacqueline Dwyer & David Gruen (ed.), Productivity and Growth Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Christopher D. Carroll & Byung-Kun Rhee & Changyong Rhee, 1994. "Are There Cultural Effects on Saving? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 685-699.
  20. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1998_num_311_1_2605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.