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Quelle convergence des règles de politique monétaire en Europe avant l’euro ?

  • Laurent Bouscharain
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    [fre] L’unification monétaire européenne est-elle passée par une réelle convergence des “ préférences des politiques monétaires ” au sein de la zone Euro ? Cette étude mesure l’importance des objectifs de stabilité anticipée des prix et de stabilisation conjoncturelle, en proposant une méthode d’estimation de règles de Taylor sur différents pays européens, et compare les résultats notamment à ceux obtenus récemment par Clarida, Gali et Gertler (NBER 6254). Les estimations montrent les tendances communes de renforcement de la lutte anti-inflation en Europe, au détriment parfois de la stabilisation conjoncturelle. Toutefois, ces estimations apparaissent sensibles à l’introduction d’autres variables reflétant les contraintes “ extérieures ” qui pourraient résulter de la coordination. Il apparaît ainsi que les taux d’intérêt allemands ont parfois influencé d’autres politiques monétaires, ce qui pourrait témoigner d’un fonctionnement monétaire asymétrique avant l’Euro. [eng] Are Monetary Policy Rules in Europe Converging Prior to the Euro ? . by Laurent Bouscharain . Has European monetary union entailed genuine convergence of “ monetary policy preferences” within the euro area ? This study measures the importance of the objectives of forecast price stability and cyclical stabilisation by offering a method of estimating Taylor rules for various European countries and compares the outcomes in particular with those recently obtained by Clarida, Gali and Gertler (NBER 6254). The results illustrate a common tendency to strengthen counterinflationary policy in Europe, sometimes to the detriment of cyclical stabilisation. However, the estimations seem sensitive to introduction of other variables reflecting the “ external” constraints that could arise from coordination. It thus appears that German interest rates have sometimes influenced other monetary policies, which would be evidence of asymmetric operation of monetary rules prior to the euro.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 147 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 159-169

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_147_1_6219
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6219
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    4. Javier Valles & Jose Vinals, 1999. "On the real effects of the monetary policy: A central banker's view," Working Papers 38, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. José Viñals & Javier Vallés, 1999. "On the Real Effects of Monetary Policy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9917, Banco de Espa�a.
    6. Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1999. "On the Real Effects of Monetary Policy: A Central Banker's View," CEPR Discussion Papers 2241, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
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