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La privatisation dans les pays en développement : déterminants et conséquences macro-économiques

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  • Patrick Plane

Abstract

[eng] Privatisation in the Developing Countries: Determining Factors and Macroeconomic Consequences . Patrick Plane . Determining factors behind privatisation are studied for the 1988-1992 period. The estimation of Probit and Tobit models on a sample of 35 developing countries suggests the statistically significant impact of four variables considered in 1988. These variables are the actual real exchange rate and three other variables expressed as a percentage of GDP: the market capitalisation ratio, the rate of indebtedness and direct investment. The introduction of privatisation probabilities or estimated values into the respective economic growth and investment explanatory models provides an interesting result. In this case, after checking for the effect of changes internal or external to the environment of the economies being studied, we do not reject the assumption that the government's withdrawal is behind an improvement in the economic situation. [fre] La privatisation dans les pays en développement : déterminants et conséquences macro-économiques . Patrick Plane . L'exploration des déterminants de la privatisation est entreprise pour la période 1988-1992. L'estimation de modèles Probit et Tobit sur un échantillon de 35 pays en développement suggère l'impact statistiquement significatif de quatre variables considérées en 1988. Il s'agit du niveau du taux de change effectif réel, et de trois autres variables exprimées en pourcentage du PIB : importance de la capitalisation boursière, taux d'endettement, investissement direct. L'introduction des probabilités ou valeurs estimées de privatisation dans des modèles respectivement explicatifs de la croissance économique et de l'investissement met en évidence un résultat intéressant. En l'occurrence, après avoir contrôlé pour l'effet de changements internes ou externes à l'environnement des économies sous revue, on ne rejette pas l'hypothèse que le désengagement de l'État aurait été à l'origine d'une amélioration de la situation économique.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Plane, 1996. "La privatisation dans les pays en développement : déterminants et conséquences macro-économiques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 19-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5804
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1996.5804
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5804
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