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Can pro-natalist policy be effective?

Author

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  • Marek Loužek

Abstract

The article is concerned with pro-natalist policies, examining empirically their effectiveness. There are proposed four hypotheses: continuous decline of the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis. Nine countries are tested: Germany, Italy, Sweden and France before the World War II and Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and East Germany during the communism. Best empirical results arise from the crowding-out hypothesis. Good results follow from the adaptive model and the continuous decline of birth rates. The natural-rate hypothesis has small explanatory power. Pro-natalist policies, according to this study, are not too effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Loužek, 2003. "Can pro-natalist policy be effective?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(3).
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:3:id:218
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population policy; pro-natalist sentiment; static model; dynamic model; constant decline in the birth rate; adaptive model; natural-rate hypothesis; crowding-out hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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