Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of birth rates and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Basin

The declining birth rate is one of the world’s major challenges. There is much literature on birth rate research in China. However, there are few studies on spatial distribution and influencing factors of birth rate in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, data from 11 regions of the Yangtze River Basin from 2006 to 2023 were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of birth rates using GIS spatial visualization and four-quadrant diagram. At the same time, 13 factors affecting birth rates were combined to carry out research. The results show that: (1) In 2023, five regions reported birth rates above 7‰, with Tibet faring the best, while six regions had rates below 7‰, with Hunan being the least favorable. (2) The first type of birth rate area shows a process of slow increase—slight decrease—accelerated growth—rapid decrease; the second type of birth rate area shows a process of gradual decrease—moderate increase—rapid decrease—rapid increase—rapid decrease; the third type of birth rate area has increased rapidly since 2021. The three types of birth rate areas show the characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of continuous spread and development. (3) The aging rate, per capita GDP, proportion of primary industry output value, proportion of tertiary industry output value, female illiteracy rate, per capita disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure, urbanization rate, proportion of higher education, juvenile dependency ratio, and elderly dependency ratio have different degrees of influence on the birth rate.