Impact of debt, reserves, and political stability on Sri Lanka’s financial crisis

This study attempts to explore the impact of external debt ($Debt), foreign reserves ($Reserves), and political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (PS&AVT) on the current financial crisis in Sri Lanka. Using data from 1996 to 2022 obtained from the World Bank (WB) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), a regression analysis is conducted, with a composite variable named "CRISIS," which accounts for interest rate, inflation, currency devaluation adjusted to GDP growth, as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that, collectively, these predictors significantly contribute to explaining the variance in the financial crisis, although their impact is relatively minor. While the direct influence of PS&AVT on the financial crisis is not statistically significant, it indirectly affects the crisis through its considerable impact on debt and reserves. Granger causality tests showed predictive value for $Debt and $Reserve in relation to CRISIS, but the reverse relationship was not significant. Regression analysis using the error term and scatter plots supports the absence of endogeneity issues in the model. These findings suggest that while external debt and foreign reserves are more directly related to financial crises, political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism can influence the crisis indirectly through their effects on debt accumulation and reserve levels. This study represents a pioneering effort in investigating the impact of external debt, foreign reserves, and political stability on the financial crises in Sri Lanka. By utilizing a comprehensive dataset and applying a regression analysis, it sheds light on the complex interactions between these variables and their influence on the country’s financial stability.