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Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates

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  • Daniel J McGrail
  • Jianli Dai
  • Kathleen M McAndrews
  • Raghu Kalluri

Abstract

The outbreak the SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) virus has resulted in over 6.5 million cases of COVID19, greatly stressing global healthcare infrastructure. Lacking medical prophylactic measures to combat disease spread, many nations have adopted social distancing policies in order to mitigate transmission of CoV-2. While mathematical models have suggested the efficacy of social distancing to curb the spread of CoV-2, there is a lack of systematic studies to quantify the real-world efficacy of these approaches. Here, we first demonstrate that implementation of social distancing policies in US states corresponded with a reduction in COVID19 spread rates, and that the reduction in spread rate is proportional to the average change in mobility. We validate this observation on a worldwide scale by analyzing COVID19 spread rate in 134 nations with varying social distancing policies. Globally, we find that social distancing policies significantly reduced the COVID19 spread rate, with resulting in an estimated 65% reduction (95% CI = 39–80%) in new COVID19 cases over a two week time period. These data suggest that social distancing policies may be a powerful tool to prevent spread of COVID19 in real-world scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel J McGrail & Jianli Dai & Kathleen M McAndrews & Raghu Kalluri, 2020. "Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-9, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236619
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236619
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    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    6. Bong Gu Kang & Hee-Mun Park & Mi Jang & Kyung-Min Seo, 2021. "Hybrid Model-Based Simulation Analysis on the Effects of Social Distancing Policy of the COVID-19 Epidemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2022. "The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-31, January.
    8. Shabnam Iezadi & Saber Azami-Aghdash & Akbar Ghiasi & Aziz Rezapour & Hamid Pourasghari & Fariba Pashazadeh & Kamal Gholipour, 2020. "Effectiveness of the non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19; a protocol of a systematic review and realist review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Alfredo García & Christopher Hartwell & Martín Andrés Szybisz, 2021. "Defying Gravity: The Economic Effects of Social Distancing," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4477, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    10. Hanghun Jo & Eunha Shin & Heungsoon Kim, 2020. "Changes in Consumer Behaviour in the Post-COVID-19 Era in Seoul, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Songhua Hu & Weiyu Luo & Aref Darzi & Yixuan Pan & Guangchen Zhao & Yuxuan Liu & Chenfeng Xiong, 2021. "Do racial and ethnic disparities in following stay-at-home orders influence COVID-19 health outcomes? A mediation analysis approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Xiaozhi Huang & Xiaojie Zhang & Heng Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Mixed Emotions on Consumer Improvisation Behavior in the Environment of COVID-19: The Moderating Effect of Tightness-Looseness Culture," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Burridge, James & Gnacik, Michał, 2022. "Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    14. Michaela Prachthauser & Jeffrey E. Cassisi & Thien-An Le & Andel V. Nicasio, 2020. "The Social Distance Scale (v1): A Screening Instrument to Assess Patient Adherence to Prevention Strategies during Pandemics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-24, November.
    15. Jaewon Lee & Hyejung Lim & Jennifer Allen & Gyuhyun Choi, 2021. "Effects of Learning Attitudes and COVID-19 Risk Perception on Poor Academic Performance among Middle School Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-10, May.
    16. Haruka Kato & Atsushi Takizawa, 2022. "Impact of the Urban Exodus Triggered by the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Shrinking Cities of the Osaka Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-13, January.
    17. Armando Cartenì & Luigi Di Francesco & Ilaria Henke & Teresa Valentina Marino & Antonella Falanga, 2021. "The Role of Public Transport during the Second COVID-19 Wave in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    18. Simone Trevas & Kathleen Manuel & Raja Malkani & Deanna Hoelscher, 2023. "Mask Adherence and Social Distancing in Houston, TX from January to April 2021," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-8, February.
    19. Lukas Zenk & Gerald Steiner & Miguel Pina e Cunha & Manfred D. Laubichler & Martin Bertau & Martin J. Kainz & Carlo Jäger & Eva S. Schernhammer, 2020. "Fast Response to Superspreading: Uncertainty and Complexity in the Context of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Amanda M. Y. Chu & Thomas W. C. Chan & Mike K. P. So & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Dynamic Network Analysis of COVID-19 with a Latent Pandemic Space Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-22, March.

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