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Public debt and the threat of secession

Author

Listed:
  • Rhea M. Molato-Gayeres

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper establishes a model of public debt as a strategic instrument in preventing secession. Using a dynamic game with perfect information, it shows that debt can be used to pre-empt a country’s separation if the seceding region’s potential gain from independence is strictly decreasing in debt. If so, the national government can prevent this region from leaving the union by setting higher levels of debt so that it reaches a certain threshold level. When the debt level is sufficiently high, this region will find it more beneficial to stay with the union rather than to become an independent state. This paper also finds that the majority region may use debt as a strategic instrument to preserve the union if it is better off in a country with debt than as a separate state with savings.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhea M. Molato-Gayeres, 2019. "Public debt and the threat of secession," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 56(1 and 2), pages 236-256, June and .
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:56:y:2019:i:1and2:p:236-256
    as

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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/987/885
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Le Breton & Shlomo Weber, 2003. "The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-4.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
    3. Haimanko, Ori & Le Breton, Michel & Weber, Shlomo, 2005. "Transfers in a polarized country: bridging the gap between efficiency and stability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(7), pages 1277-1303, July.
    4. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Spolaore, Enrico, 1994. "How cynical can an incumbent be? Strategic policy in a model of government spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 121-140, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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