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Constructively simple estimating: a project management example

Author

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  • C Chapman

    (University of Southampton)

  • S Ward

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

A ‘constructively simple’ approach to estimating uses a decision support modelling paradigm based on project risk management and operational research concepts. It employs probability models selected from a set of alternative stochastic models of uncertainty with a view to maximising the insight provided, given an appropriate level of complexity. It addresses issues that include the joint use of subjective and objective probabilities, subjectivity of model data and structure, bias, data acquisition costs, the importance of getting an estimate right, optimising the estimating processes involved as a whole in approximate but robust terms, and differences in interpretation of what this means to estimators and users of estimates. Specific applications are necessarily context-specific to some extent, but the underlying ideas are of general applicability. This paper uses a simple example involving estimating the uncertain duration of a project activity to illustrate what is involved.

Suggested Citation

  • C Chapman & S Ward, 2003. "Constructively simple estimating: a project management example," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(10), pages 1050-1058, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:54:y:2003:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601610
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon, Herbert A, 1979. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 493-513, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Louis Klein, 2016. "Towards a Practice of Systemic Change — Acknowledging Social Complexity in Project Management," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 651-661, September.
    2. Jesus Palomo & David Rios Insua & Fabrizio Ruggeri, 2007. "Modeling External Risks in Project Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 961-978, August.
    3. Arena, Marika & Arnaboldi, Michela & Azzone, Giovanni, 2010. "The organizational dynamics of Enterprise Risk Management," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 659-675, October.
    4. Iordanis Eleftheriadis & Vasilios Vyttas, 2016. "Creating a culture of risk in the Greek public administration. A brief retrospect on the memorandum era," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(2), pages 65-71, June.
    5. Catalina García & José Pérez & Salvador Rambaud, 2010. "Proposal of a new distribution in PERT methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 515-538, December.

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