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Are box office revenues equally unpredictable for all movies? Evidence from a Random forest-based model

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  • Evgeny A. Antipov

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Elena B. Pokryshevskaya

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

In this study we develop a model for early box office receipts forecasting that, in addition to traditionally used regressors, uses several inputs that have never been used before, but appeared to be very useful predictors according to our variable importance analysis. New predictors account for the power of actors and directors, as well as for the intensity of competition at the time of movie release. Instead of Motion Picture of Association of America (MPAA) ratings commonly used in movie success prediction, textual information about the reasons for giving a movie its MPAA rating was formalized using word frequency and principal components analyses. The expert system is based on the Random forest algorithm, which outperformed a stepwise regression and a multilayer perceptron neural network. A regression tree-based diagnostic approach allowed us to detect the heterogeneity of model accuracy across segments of data and assess the applicability of the model to different movie types.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeny A. Antipov & Elena B. Pokryshevskaya, 2017. "Are box office revenues equally unpredictable for all movies? Evidence from a Random forest-based model," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(3), pages 295-307, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorapm:v:16:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41272-016-0072-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s41272-016-0072-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Taegu & Hong, Jungsik & Kang, Pilsung, 2015. "Box office forecasting using machine learning algorithms based on SNS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 364-390.
    2. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Sam K. Hui & Z. John Zhang, 2007. "From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 881-893, June.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    4. Flores, Benito E, 1986. "A pragmatic view of accuracy measurement in forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 93-98.
    5. Antipov, Evgeny & Pokryshevskaya, Elena, 2010. "Accounting for latent classes in movie box office modeling," MPRA Paper 27644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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