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Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation Using ANFIS Based on Oil Characteristics and Dissolved Gases (Case Study: Indonesian Transformers)

Author

Listed:
  • Rahman A. Prasojo

    () (School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia)

  • Karunika Diwyacitta

    () (School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia)

  • Suwarno

    () (School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia)

  • Harry Gumilang

    () (PT. PLN (Persero) TJBT, Bandung 40243, Indonesia)

Abstract

This article presents an algorithm for modelling an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for power transformer paper conditions in order to estimate the transformer’s expected life. The dielectric characteristics, dissolved gasses, and furfural of 108 running transformers were collected, which were divided into 76 training datasets and another 32 testing datasets. The degree of polymerization (DP) of the transformer paper was predicted using the ANFIS model based on using the dielectric characteristics and dissolved gases as input. These inputs were analyzed, and the best combination was selected, whereas CO + CO 2 , acidity, interfacial tension, and color were correlated with the paper’s deterioration condition and were chosen as the input variables. The best combination of input variables and membership function was selected to build the optimal ANFIS model, which was then compared and evaluated. The proposed ANFIS model has 89.07% training accuracy and 85.75% testing accuracy and was applied to a transformer paper insulation assessment and an estimation of the expected life of four Indonesian transformers for which furfural data is unavailable. This proposed algorithm can be used as a furfural alternative for the general assessment of transformer paper conditions and the estimation of expected life and provides a helpful assistance for experts in transformer condition assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman A. Prasojo & Karunika Diwyacitta & Suwarno & Harry Gumilang, 2017. "Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation Using ANFIS Based on Oil Characteristics and Dissolved Gases (Case Study: Indonesian Transformers)," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:8:p:1135-:d:106669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    2. Flores, Benito E, 1986. "A pragmatic view of accuracy measurement in forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 93-98.
    3. Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(8), pages 1352-1362, August.
    4. Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 524-524, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yiyi Zhang & Jiefeng Liu & Hanbo Zheng & Hua Wei & Ruijin Liao, 2017. "Study on Quantitative Correlations between the Ageing Condition of Transformer Cellulose Insulation and the Large Time Constant Obtained from the Extended Debye Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Abi Munajad & Cahyo Subroto & Suwarno, 2018. "Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy Analysis of Transformer Paper in Mineral Oil-Paper Composite Insulation under Accelerated Thermal Aging," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ANFIS; furanic compounds; degree of polymerization; paper insulation; remaining life; dissolved gas analysis; dielectric characteristic;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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