IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/gpprii/v42y2017i4d10.1057_s41288-017-0051-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Porter

    (Heriot-Watt University)

  • Emily White

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

We analyse the potential to combine catastrophe (CAT) risk modelling with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realised shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. We outline the CAT risk modelling framework and the role of the vulnerability module. We present results of a regression model estimating ex post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types. We assess the generalisability of the derived functions to infer applicability to a CAT risk modelling framework. We stress test the model using statistical models of resampling to establish external validity: whether the relationships established in the data set can be used beyond the context in which they were derived. We conclude with caution that a full CAT risk model could be applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Porter & Emily White, 2017. "The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(4), pages 657-674, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:42:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-017-0051-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41288-017-0051-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2007. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20.
    2. Raj Chetty, 2009. "Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 451-488, May.
    3. Ilan Noy & Cuong Nguyen & Pooja Patel, 2021. "Floods and Spillovers: Households after the 2011 Great Flood in Thailand," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 829-868.
    4. Drechsler,Mareile Beate Stephanie & Soer,Wolter, 2016. "Early warning, early action : the use of predictive tools in drought response through Ethiopia's productive safety net programme," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7716, The World Bank.
    5. Diamond,Alexis & Gill,Michael & Rebolledo Dellepiane,Miguel Angel & Skoufias,Emmanuel & Vinha,Katja & Xu,Yiqing, 2016. "Estimating poverty rates in target populations : an assessment of the simple poverty scorecard and alternative approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7793, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hallegatte,Stephane & Bangalore,Mook & Jouanjean,Marie Agnes, 2016. "Higher losses and slower development in the absence of disaster risk management investments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7632, The World Bank.
    2. Hellwig, Christian & Werquin, Nicolas, 2022. "A Fair Day's Pay for a Fair Day's Work: Optimal Tax Design as Redistributional Arbitrage," CEPR Discussion Papers 16863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Roberto Robatto, 2019. "Cost of Inflation in Inventory Theoretical Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 206-226, April.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute.
    6. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Combining microsimulation and optimization to identify optimal universalistic tax-transfer rule," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    7. David S. Lee & Pauline Leung & Christopher J. O’Leary & Zhuan Pei & Simon Quach, 2021. "Are Sufficient Statistics Necessary? Nonparametric Measurement of Deadweight Loss from Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(S2), pages 455-506.
    8. Fernando Alvarez & Andrea Ferrara & Erwan Gautier & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2025. "Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(4), pages 2165-2196.
    9. Hummel, Albert Jan & Ziesemer, Vinzenz, 2023. "Food subsidies in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Nicolai V. Kuminoff & Jaren C. Pope, 2014. "Do “Capitalization Effects” For Public Goods Reveal The Public'S Willingness To Pay?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1227-1250, November.
    11. Takanori Adachi & Michal Fabinger, 2017. "Multi-Dimensional Pass-Through, Incidence, and the Welfare Burden of Taxation in Oligopoly," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1040, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    12. Hongxing Liu & Wendong Zhang & Elena Irwin & Jeffrey Kast & Noel Aloysius & Jay Martin & Margaret Kalcic, 2020. "Best Management Practices and Nutrient Reduction: An Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Model of the Western Lake Erie Basin," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(4), pages 510-530.
    13. Steffen Andersen & Cristian Badarinza & Lu Liu & Julie Marx & Tarun Ramadorai, 2022. "Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(10), pages 3398-3440, October.
    14. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    15. Malgouyres, Clément & Mayer, Thierry & Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément, 2021. "Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband expansion in France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Alex Rees-Jones & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2018. "Taxing Humans: Pitfalls of the Mechanism Design Approach and Potential Resolutions," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 107-133.
    17. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 2019. "Practical policy evaluation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 29-45.
    18. Lemoine, Derek, 2020. "General equilibrium rebound from energy efficiency innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    19. Kusunose, Yoko & Lybbert, Travis J., 2014. "Coping with Drought by Adjusting Land Tenancy Contracts: A Model and Evidence from Rural Morocco," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-126.
    20. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:42:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41288-017-0051-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.