Scenario Analysis for the Perspectives of the EU-Russian Federation Relationship

In the current geopolitical environment the “cold” relations between the European Union (EU) and the Russian Federation are not only the consequence of the mutual imposed sanctions after the Ukrainian crisis, but also a result of EU’s increased influence in former Soviet space (especially through Baltic States integration and Eastern Partnership extension). Both Eastern Partnership and the Neighborhood Policy initiatives have bean considered as an imminent threat to the Russian hegemonic position in the former USSR member states. In our opinion the EU was not prepared to manage the relationship with Russian Federation in a pragmatic approach, hence in the post-Soviet Union era the Ukraine crisis has led to extreme tension between these two powers which reflected negatively on trade and diplomatic relations. Taking into consideration those realities, this paper presents a scenario analysis regarding the perspectives of the EU-Russian Federation relationship in the light of the impact of political and economical sanctions imposed after the Ukrainian crisis. Our research is based on a quantitative analysis of the two countries trade and FDI flows (before and post the Ukrainian crisis), but also on a qualitative approach based on the most relevant theories about international sanctions