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Crises gêmeas nos mercados emergentes: América Latina x Leste Asiático [Twin crises in emergent markets: Latin America and Eastern Asia]

  • Tito Belchior Silva Moreira

    ()

    (UCB)

  • Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto

    ()

    (UnB)

  • Geraldo da Silva e Souza

    ()

    (UnB)

This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as "twin crises", adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries in the context of the East Asian crisis. Based on the crisis index regarding data from 1996, the most vulnerable countries of the twin crises can be ordered and identified a year before the onset of the crises. East Asian countries, in contrast with Latin American countries, were identified as the most vulnerable to twin crises.

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File URL: http://www.face.ufmg.br/novaeconomia/sumarios/v14n3/140306.pdf
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Article provided by Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil) in its journal Nova Economia.

Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September-December)
Pages: 161-186

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Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:14:y:2004:i:3:p:161-186
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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  2. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, December.
  6. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  7. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13828.
  8. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
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