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Crises gêmeas nos mercados emergentes: América Latina x Leste Asiático [Twin crises in emergent markets: Latin America and Eastern Asia]


  • Tito Belchior Silva Moreira

    () (UCB)

  • Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto

    () (UnB)

  • Geraldo da Silva e Souza

    () (UnB)


This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as "twin crises", adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries in the context of the East Asian crisis. Based on the crisis index regarding data from 1996, the most vulnerable countries of the twin crises can be ordered and identified a year before the onset of the crises. East Asian countries, in contrast with Latin American countries, were identified as the most vulnerable to twin crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Tito Belchior Silva Moreira & Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto & Geraldo da Silva e Souza, 2004. "Crises gêmeas nos mercados emergentes: América Latina x Leste Asiático [Twin crises in emergent markets: Latin America and Eastern Asia]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 14(3), pages 161-186, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:14:y:2004:i:3:p:161-186

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    5. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    6. Diehl, Markus & Schweickert, Rainer, 1998. "Currency crises: Is Asia different?," Kiel Discussion Papers 309, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
    8. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13828.
    9. repec:wsi:wschap:9789814749589_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    More about this item


    Latin America; East Asian crisis; twin crises; currency and financial crises;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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