Studying the Relation between the Unified State Exam Points and Higher Education Performance

Tatiana Khavenson - Research Fellow at The International Laboratory for Education Policy Analysis at the HSE Graduate School of Education. E-mail: tkhavenson@hse.ruAnna Solovyova - Intern Research Fellow at The International Laboratory for Education Policy Analysis at the HSE Graduate School of Education. E-mail: soloveva.anna@gmail.comThis paper analyzes the possibility of predicting efficiency of learning in a higher education institution based on results of the Unified State Exam (USE). In particular, the authors test the hypothesis that USE results in different subjects are equally efficient predictors of further student performance. Methods of regression analysis have been used to assess how preliminary examinations (both total USE points and points in specific subjects) affect academic performance in higher education. The research involved about 19,000 students enrolled at five Russian higher education institutions between 2009 and 2011. As long as the sample included institutions of different profiles, individual regressions were calculated for each faculty. A meta-analysis of regression coefficients was performed later to bring the data together. Average firstyear grade was used as the key university performance factor. It was found out that USE points were only related to performance in the second and the subsequent years through performance in the first year, i. e. indirectly. The research results allow to conclude that predictive capacity of total USE points is high enough to accept this examination as a valid student selection tool. The explained variation in university performance varies from 15 to 35% in different faculties. Predictive capacity of particular subjects making the USE total points is relatively the same, but USE points in mathematics and Russian are often the best predictors of performance. The paper also analyzes the relation between USE points and another student selection tool - results of academic competitions in specific subjects.