The long-term economic impact of the flat tax in Poland. CGE simulation under alternative assumptions
The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-term macroeconomic effects of introducing the flat personal income tax at the level of 18% in Poland. We perform the simulation on a static CGE (computable general equilibrium) model which helps track the reaction of the economy on the impulse arising from the change in the tax regime. We assume that the gap in government revenues arising from the flat tax introduction will be fully matched by cuts in government consumption. The literature suggests that the flat tax reform is likely to stimulate labor supply and capital expansion. The actual macroeconomic outcome largely depends on adjustment mechanisms at work – especially the driving force of investment. If the increased household savings were to be fully transformed into investment, GDP gain of 0.7−0.9% is observed, otherwise this effect is dampened to 0–0.2%. The tax regime change in the analyzed form will deepen inequality and is likely to reduce welfare of some (particularly low-income) households.
Volume (Year): 43 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21|
Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
Web page: http://www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl/menu_en.aspx
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85 Elsevier.
- Nickel, Christiane & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 0935, European Central Bank.
- Immervoll, Herwig & Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup & Saez, Emmanuel, 2005.
"Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1810, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, 01.
- Immervoll, Herwig & Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup & Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Welfare reform in European countries: a micro-simulation analysis," EUROMOD Working Papers EM1/04, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Microsimulation Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 28, OECD Publishing.
- Immervoll, Herwig & Kleven, Henrik & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup & Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Micro-Simulation Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anna Ivanova & Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "The Russian ‘flat tax’ reform," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(43), pages 397-444, 07.
- Majcen, Boris & Verbic, Miroslav & Cok, Mitja, 2007. "The Income Tax Reform in Slovenia: Should the Flat Tax Have Prevailed?," MPRA Paper 10348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2011.
"Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US,"
201114, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Bargain, Olivier & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2011. "Labor supply elasticities in Europe and the US," EUROMOD Working Papers EM1/11, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Bargain, Olivier & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2011. "Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 5820, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Bach, Stefan & Corneo, Giacomo & Steiner, Viktor, 2012.
"Optimal top marginal tax rates under income splitting for couples,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1055-1069.
- Bach, Stefan & Corneo, Giacomo & Steiner, Viktor, 2011. "Optimal top marginal tax rates under income splitting for couples," Discussion Papers 2011/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Bach, Stefan & Corneo, Giacomo & Steiner, Viktor, 2011. "Optimal top marginal tax rates under income splitting for couples," CEPR Discussion Papers 8435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Adams, Philip D., 2005. "Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 941-959, November.
- Phelps, Edmund S., 2002. "Income tax cuts without spending cuts: hazards to efficiency, equity, employment and growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 391-399, July.
- Aidt, Toke S. & Dutta, Jayasri, 2007. "Policy myopia and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 734-753, September.
- Paulus, Alari & Lelkes, Orsolya & Cok, Mitja & Kump, NataÅ¡a & Hegedus, PÃ©ter & VÃµrk, Andres & SzivÃ³s, PÃ©ter & Kralik, Silja, 2009. "Flat tax reform in Eastern Europe: a comparative analysis of alternative scenarios in Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia, using EUROMOD," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/09, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Michiel Evers & Ruud Mooij & Daniel Vuuren, 2008. "The Wage Elasticity of Labour Supply: A Synthesis of Empirical Estimates," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 25-43, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:43:y:2012:i:3:p:5-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sylwia Roszkowska)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.