IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nathum/v6y2022i2d10.1038_s41562-022-01289-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Ye

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Qingpeng Zhang

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Xuan Wei

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Zhidong Cao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hsiang-Yu Yuan

    (City University of Hong Kong
    City University of Hong Kong)

  • Daniel Dajun Zeng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Despite broad agreement on the negative consequences of vaccine inequity, the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is imbalanced. Access to vaccines in high-income countries (HICs) is far greater than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a result, there continue to be high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths in LMICs. In addition, recent mutant COVID-19 outbreaks may counteract advances in epidemic control and economic recovery in HICs. To explore the consequences of vaccine (in)equity in the face of evolving COVID-19 strains, we examine vaccine allocation strategies using a multistrain metapopulation model. Our results show that vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to HICs. Sharper disparities in vaccine allocation between HICs and LMICs lead to earlier and larger outbreaks of new waves. Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains. For HICs, making immediate and generous vaccine donations to LMICs is a practical pathway to protect everyone.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Ye & Qingpeng Zhang & Xuan Wei & Zhidong Cao & Hsiang-Yu Yuan & Daniel Dajun Zeng, 2022. "Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 207-216, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:6:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41562-022-01289-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01289-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01289-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41562-022-01289-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yeşiltaş & Muhammed A. Yıldırım, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 28395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Whittaker & Gregory Barnsley & Daniela Olivera Mesa & Victoria Cox & Daniel J. Laydon & Chee Wah Tan & Feng Zhu & Rob Johnson & Patrick Doohan & Lilith K. Whittles & Gemma Nedjati-Gilani & Pet, 2025. "Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Erdoğan, Güneş & Yücel, Eda & Kiavash, Parinaz & Salman, F. Sibel, 2024. "Fair and effective vaccine allocation during a pandemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Michele Tizzoni & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Laetitia Gauvin & Márton Karsai & Nicola Perra & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Otten, Kasper & Buskens, Vincent & Przepiorka, Wojtek & Cherki, Boaz & Israel, Salomon, 2024. "Cooperation, punishment, and group change in multilevel public goods experiments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Patrick Mellacher & Simon Plakolb, 2025. "Global Inequality in Vaccine Access, Mortality and Economy: An Agent-based Exploration," Graz Economics Papers 2025-12, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    6. Geiger, Susi & Prainsack, Barbara & Wagenaar, Hendrik, 2024. "The WHO Pandemic Agreement should be more specific about when and how to enable global access to technology," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Chuanlin Ning & Han Wang & Jing Wu & Qinwei Chen & Huacheng Pei & Hao Gao, 2022. "The COVID-19 Vaccination and Vaccine Inequity Worldwide: An Empirical Study Based on Global Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Sahabi Kabir Sulaiman & Muhammad Sale Musa & Fatimah Isma’il Tsiga-Ahmed & Abdulwahab Kabir Sulaiman & Abdulaziz Tijjani Bako, 2024. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global prevalence and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in people living with HIV," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 100-114, January.
    9. Muckstadt, John A. & Klein, Michael G. & Jackson, Peter L. & Gougelet, Robert M. & Hupert, Nathaniel, 2023. "Efficient and effective large-scale vaccine distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    10. Dimitris Zavras, 2022. "Access to the COVID-19 Vaccine," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-4, September.
    11. Rughinis, Cosima & Vulpe, Simona Nicoleta & Flaherty, Michael G. & Vasile, Sorina, 2022. "Vaccination, life expectancy, and trust: Patterns of COVID-19 vaccination rates around the world," MPRA Paper 111981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Anderson F. Brito & Elizaveta Semenova & Gytis Dudas & Gabriel W. Hassler & Chaney C. Kalinich & Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Joses Ho & Houriiyah Tegally & George Githinji & Charles N. Agoti & Lucy E. Matk, 2022. "Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hwang, Eunju, 2022. "Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Wood, Reed M. & Juanchich, Marie & Ramirez, Mark & Zhang, Shenghao, 2023. "Promoting COVID-19 vaccine confidence through public responses to misinformation: The joint influence of message source and message content," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    3. S. D. Sreeganga & Ajay Chandra & Arkalgud Ramaprasad, 2021. "Ontological Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Roll out Strategies: A Comparison of India and the United States of America," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    5. Radosław Trepanowski & Dariusz Drążkowski, 2024. "The Vaccine-Education Paradox in a Cross-Country Analysis: Education Predicts Higher and Lower Vaccination Rates," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    6. Stankov, Petar, 2025. "Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 358-370.
    7. Schenkel, Marina, 2024. "Health emergencies, science contrarianism and populism: A scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    8. D. G. Webster & Semra A. Aytur & Mark Axelrod & Robyn S. Wilson & Joseph A. Hamm & Linda Sayed & Amber L. Pearson & Pedro Henrique C. Torres & Alero Akporiaye & Oran Young, 2022. "Learning from the Past: Pandemics and the Governance Treadmill," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Tam-Tri Le & Viet-Phuong La & Huyen Thanh Thanh Nguyen & Manh-Toan Ho & Quy Khuc & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2022. "Covid-19 vaccines production and societal immunization under the serendipity-mindsponge-3D knowledge management theory and conceptual framework," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Tianzhen Hu & Li Li & Chuanxue Lin & Zikun Yang & Cheng Chow & Zhipeng Lu & Chen You, 2022. "An Analysis of the Willingness to the COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots among Urban Employees: Evidence from a Megacity H in Eastern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Carlotta Amantea & Maria Francesca Rossi & Paolo Emilio Santoro & Flavia Beccia & Maria Rosaria Gualano & Ivan Borrelli & Joana Pinto da Costa & Alessandra Daniele & Antonio Tumminello & Stefania Bocc, 2022. "Medical Liability of the Vaccinating Doctor: Comparing Policies in European Union Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-11, June.
    12. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2023. "The Effect Of School Closures On Standardized Test Scores: Evidence From A Zero-Covid Environment," Working Papers 2023-09, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    13. Kun Sun & Tian-Fang Zhao & Xiao-Kun Wu & Kai-Sheng Lai & Wei-Neng Chen & Jin-Sheng Zhang, 2022. "Incorporating Fuzzy Cognitive Inference for Vaccine Hesitancy Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    14. Ilias Chronopoulos & Katerina Chrysikou & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2023. "Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models," Working Papers 23-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Jo Daniels & Hannah Rettie, 2022. "The Mental Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Second Wave on Shielders and Their Family Members," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Antoni Wilinski & Irena Bach-Dabrowska, 2022. "COVID-19: Changes in the Ranking of Polish Regions According to the Criterion Taking into Account both the Reluctance to Vaccinate and the Number of Deaths," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 423-432.
    17. Toby Pepperrell & Meri Koivusalo & Liz Grant & Alison McCallum, 2025. "Transforming trade for vaccine equity: Policy gaps and barriers," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(6), pages 1-21, June.
    18. Chad P. Bown & Thomas J. Bollyky, 2022. "How COVID‐19 vaccine supply chains emerged in the midst of a pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 468-522, February.
    19. Martini, Christina A. & Bos, Björn & Drupp, Moritz A. & Meya, Jasper N. & Quaas, Martin F., 2024. "Dishonesty is linked with the spread of infectious diseases," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    20. Gergő Mihály Balogh & Balázs Koncz & Leó Asztalos & Eszter Ari & Nikolett Gémes & Gábor J. Szebeni & Benjamin Tamás Papp & Franciska Tóth & Balázs Papp & Csaba Pál & Máté Manczinger, 2025. "C > U mutations generate immunogenic peptides in SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:6:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41562-022-01289-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.