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Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica Strefler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Leon Merfort

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Miodrag Stevanović

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Dennis Tänzler

    (Alt-Moabit 91)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David Klein

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Michaja Pehl

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Robert C. Pietzcker

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Kassel)

  • Renato Rodrigues

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Marianna Rottoli

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Faculty of Economics and Social Science, University of Potsdam)

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO2eq/yr requires CO2 prices above 100 €/tCO2 in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO2 price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO2 by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Strefler & Leon Merfort & Nico Bauer & Miodrag Stevanović & Dennis Tänzler & Florian Humpenöder & David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Robert C. Pietzcker & Alexander Popp & Renato Ro, 2024. "Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52424-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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