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Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Author

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  • Giacomo Falchetta

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Department of Economics)

  • Filippo Pavanello

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
    Department of Economics)

  • Ian Sue Wing

    (Dept. of Earth & Environment)

Abstract

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr.−1, emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo Falchetta & Enrica De Cian & Filippo Pavanello & Ian Sue Wing, 2024. "Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52028-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52028-8
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