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The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Author

Listed:
  • A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • N. Scovronick

    (Emory University)

  • F. Sera

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    University of Florence)

  • D. Royé

    (University of Santiago de Compostela
    CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP))

  • R. Schneider

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN)
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF))

  • A. Tobias

    (Spanish Council for Scientific Research
    Nagasaki University)

  • C. Astrom

    (Umeå University)

  • Y. Guo

    (Monash University)

  • Y. Honda

    (University of Tsukuba)

  • D. M. Hondula

    (Arizona State University)

  • R. Abrutzky

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires)

  • S. Tong

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
    Anhui Medical University
    Queensland University of Technology
    Nanjing Medical University)

  • M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho

    (University of São Paulo)

  • P. H. Nascimento Saldiva

    (University of São Paulo)

  • E. Lavigne

    (Health Canada
    University of Ottawa)

  • P. Matus Correa

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • N. Valdes Ortega

    (Universidad de los Andes)

  • H. Kan

    (Fudan University)

  • S. Osorio

    (University of São Paulo)

  • J. Kyselý

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • A. Urban

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences
    Czech University of Life Sciences)

  • H. Orru

    (University of Tartu)

  • E. Indermitte

    (University of Tartu)

  • J. J. K. Jaakkola

    (University of Oulu
    Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • N. Ryti

    (University of Oulu)

  • M. Pascal

    (French National Public Health Agency)

  • A. Schneider

    (Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH))

  • K. Katsouyanni

    (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
    Imperial College London)

  • E. Samoli

    (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens)

  • F. Mayvaneh

    (Hakim Sabzevari University)

  • A. Entezari

    (Hakim Sabzevari University)

  • P. Goodman

    (Technological University Dublin)

  • A. Zeka

    (Brunel University London)

  • P. Michelozzi

    (Lazio Regional Health Service)

  • F. de’Donato

    (Lazio Regional Health Service)

  • M. Hashizume

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • B. Alahmad

    (Harvard University)

  • M. Hurtado Diaz

    (National Institute of Public Health)

  • C. De La Cruz Valencia

    (National Institute of Public Health)

  • A. Overcenco

    (National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health)

  • D. Houthuijs

    (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM))

  • C. Ameling

    (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM))

  • S. Rao

    (Norwegian Institute of Public Health)

  • F. Ruscio

    (Norwegian Institute of Public Health)

  • G. Carrasco-Escobar

    (Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia)

  • X. Seposo

    (Kyoto University)

  • S. Silva

    (Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge)

  • J. Madureira

    (Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge
    Universidade do Porto)

  • I. H. Holobaca

    (Babes-Bolay University)

  • S. Fratianni

    (University of Torino)

  • F. Acquaotta

    (University of Torino)

  • H. Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • W. Lee

    (Seoul National University)

  • C. Iniguez

    (CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)
    Universitat de València)

  • B. Forsberg

    (Umeå University)

  • M. S. Ragettli

    (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
    University of Basel)

  • Y. L. L. Guo

    (National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital
    National Health Research Institutes)

  • B. Y. Chen

    (National Health Research Institutes)

  • S. Li

    (Monash University)

  • B. Armstrong

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • A. Aleman

    (University of the Republic)

  • A. Zanobetti

    (Harvard University)

  • J. Schwartz

    (Harvard University)

  • T. N. Dang

    (University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City)

  • D. V. Dung

    (University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City)

  • N. Gillett

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • A. Haines

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN))

  • M. Mengel

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • V. Huber

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • A. Gasparrini

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera & N. Scovronick & F. Sera & D. Royé & R. Schneider & A. Tobias & C. Astrom & Y. Guo & Y. Honda & D. M. Hondula & R. Abrutzky & S. Tong & M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho & P., 2021. "The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 492-500, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01058-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Martina S. Ragettli & Apolline Saucy & Benjamin Flückiger & Danielle Vienneau & Kees de Hoogh & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Christian Schindler & Martin Röösli, 2023. "Explorative Assessment of the Temperature–Mortality Association to Support Health-Based Heat-Warning Thresholds: A National Case-Crossover Study in Switzerland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Elizabeth Humphrys & James Goodman & Freya Newman, 2022. "‘Zonked the hell out’: Climate change and heat stress at work," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 256-271, June.
    3. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Rui Shan & Haixiao Weng & Haoyu Zhang, 2023. "How a Grid Company Could Enter the Hydrogen Industry through a New Business Model: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Kerstin K. Zander & Jonas Rieskamp & Milad Mirbabaie & Mamoun Alazab & Duy Nguyen, 2023. "Responses to heat waves: what can Twitter data tell us?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3547-3564, April.
    5. Marcantonio, Richard A., 2022. "Toxic diplomacy through environmental management: A necessary next step for environmental peacebuilding," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Scorgie, F. & Lusambili, A. & Luchters, S. & Khaemba, P. & Filippi, V. & Nakstad, B. & Hess, J. & Birch, C. & Kovats, S. & Chersich, M.F., 2023. "“Mothers get really exhausted!” The lived experience of pregnancy in extreme heat: Qualitative findings from Kilifi, Kenya," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    7. Wan Ting Katty Huang & Pierre Masselot & Elie Bou-Zeid & Simone Fatichi & Athanasios Paschalis & Ting Sun & Antonio Gasparrini & Gabriele Manoli, 2023. "Economic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Colin J. Carlson & Rita Colwell & Mohammad Sharif Hossain & Mohammed Mofizur Rahman & Alan Robock & Sadie J. Ryan & Mohammad Shafiul Alam & Christopher H. Trisos, 2022. "Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Zofia Boni & Zofia Bieńkowska & Franciszek Chwałczyk & Barbara Jancewicz & Iulia Marginean & Paloma Yáñez Serrano, 2023. "What is a heat(wave)? An interdisciplinary perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Alberto Ponso & Angelo Bonfitto & Giovanni Belingardi, 2023. "Route Planning for Electric Vehicles Including Driving Style, HVAC, Payload and Battery Health," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Yali Zhang & Shakoor Hajat & Liang Zhao & Huiqi Chen & Liangliang Cheng & Meng Ren & Kuiying Gu & John S. Ji & Wannian Liang & Cunrui Huang, 2022. "The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    12. Rebecca Newman & Ilan Noy, 2023. "The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Piringer, Niklas & Vardanega, Gabrielle & Thiede, Brian C., 2022. "Climate Exposures and Household Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," SocArXiv nbwf6, Center for Open Science.
    14. Arnaud Auber & Conor Waldock & Anthony Maire & Eric Goberville & Camille Albouy & Adam C. Algar & Matthew McLean & Anik Brind’Amour & Alison L. Green & Mark Tupper & Laurent Vigliola & Kristin Kaschne, 2022. "A functional vulnerability framework for biodiversity conservation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Luke J. Harrington & Dave Frame, 2022. "Extreme heat in New Zealand: a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.
    16. Phoebe Koundouri & Angelos Alamanos & Jeffrey D Sachs, 2024. "Innovating for Sustainability: The Global Climate Hub," DEOS Working Papers 2403, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    17. Mubarak Alawadhi & Patrick E. Phelan, 2022. "Review of Residential Air Conditioning Systems Operating under High Ambient Temperatures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-46, April.

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