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Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C

Author

Listed:
  • Lilian Schuster

    (Univ. Innsbruck)

  • Fabien Maussion

    (Univ. Innsbruck
    Univ. of Bristol)

  • David R. Rounce

    (Carnegie Mellon Univ.)

  • Lizz Ultee

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    Morgan State Univ.)

  • Patrick Schmitt

    (Univ. Innsbruck)

  • Fabrice Lacroix

    (Univ. of Bern
    Univ. of Bern
    Univ. of Bern)

  • Thomas L. Frölicher

    (Univ. of Bern
    Univ. of Bern)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Humboldt Univ. of Berlin)

Abstract

Exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels has become a distinct possibility, yet the consequences of such an overshoot for mountain glaciers and their contribution to raising sea levels and impacting water availability are not well understood. Here we show that exceeding and then returning to below 1.5 °C will have irreversible consequences for glacier mass and runoff over centuries. Global climate and glacier simulations project that a 3.0 °C peak-and-decline scenario will lead to 11% more global glacier mass loss by 2500 compared with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshooting. In basins where glaciers regrow after peak temperature, glacier runoff reduces further than if the glaciers stabilize, a phenomenon we call ‘trough water’. Half the studied glaciated basins show reduced glacier runoff with overshoot compared with without for decades to centuries after peak warming. These findings underscore the urgency of near-term emissions reductions and limiting temperature overshoot.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilian Schuster & Fabien Maussion & David R. Rounce & Lizz Ultee & Patrick Schmitt & Fabrice Lacroix & Thomas L. Frölicher & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2025. "Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(6), pages 634-641, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02318-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Romain Hugonnet & Robert McNabb & Etienne Berthier & Brian Menounos & Christopher Nuth & Luc Girod & Daniel Farinotti & Matthias Huss & Ines Dussaillant & Fanny Brun & Andreas Kääb, 2021. "Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7856), pages 726-731, April.
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