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Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Piers M. Forster

    (University of Leeds)

  • Harriet I. Forster

    (Queen Margaret’s School, Escrick)

  • Mat J. Evans

    (University of York
    University of York)

  • Matthew J. Gidden

    (Climate Analytics
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Christoph A. Keller

    (Goddard Space Flight Center
    Universities Space Research Association)

  • Robin D. Lamboll

    (Imperial College London)

  • Corinne Le Quéré

    (University of East Anglia
    University of East Anglia)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Imperial College London)

  • Deborah Rosen

    (University of Leeds)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Thomas B. Richardson

    (University of Leeds)

  • Christopher J. Smith

    (University of Leeds
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Steven T. Turnock

    (University of Leeds
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Piers M. Forster & Harriet I. Forster & Mat J. Evans & Matthew J. Gidden & Chris D. Jones & Christoph A. Keller & Robin D. Lamboll & Corinne Le Quéré & Joeri Rogelj & Deborah Rosen & Carl-Friedrich Sc, 2020. "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 913-919, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0883-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Philippe Le Billon & Païvi Lujala & Devyani Singh & Vance Culbert & Berit Kristoffersen, 2021. "Fossil fuels, climate change, and the COVID-19 crisis: pathways for a just and green post-pandemic recovery," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 1347-1356, November.
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    9. Afia Fahmida Daizy & Mobasshir Anjum & Md. Raied Arman & Tanzina Nazia & Nadir Shah, 2021. "Long-run Impact of Globalization, Agriculture, Industrialization and Electricity Consumption on the Environmental Quality of Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 438-453.
    10. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    11. Zhu Liu & Zhu Deng & Philippe Ciais & Jianguang Tan & Biqing Zhu & Steven J. Davis & Robbie Andrew & Olivier Boucher & Simon Ben Arous & Pep Canadel & Xinyu Dou & Pierre Friedlingstein & Pierre Gentin, 2021. "Global Daily CO$_2$ emissions for the year 2020," Papers 2103.02526, arXiv.org.
    12. Tian, Jinfang & Yu, Longguang & Xue, Rui & Zhuang, Shan & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    13. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    14. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Shuang Ma & Kang Cao & Shuangjin Li & Yaozhi Luo & Ke Wang & Wei Liu & Guohui Sun, 2022. "Examining the Human Activity-Intensity Change at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Chinese Working, Residential and Entertainment Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Wang, Xue-Chao & Jiang, Peng & Yang, Lan & Fan, Yee Van & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Wang, Yutao, 2021. "Extended water-energy nexus contribution to environmentally-related sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "On Spurious Causality, CO2, and Global Temperature," Papers 2103.10605, arXiv.org.
    18. Grinin, Leonid & Grinin, Anton & Korotayev, Andrey, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic as a trigger for the acceleration of the cybernetic revolution, transition from e-government to e-state, and change in social relations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    19. Avgousti, Aris & Caprioli, Francesco & Caracciolo, Giacomo & Cochard, Marion & Dallari, Pietro & Delgado-Téllez, Mar & Domingues, João & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Filip, Daniela & Nerlich, Carolin & Pra, 2023. "The climate change challenge and fiscal instruments and policies in the EU," Occasional Paper Series 315, European Central Bank.
    20. Joanna Brzyska & Izabela Szamrej-Baran, 2023. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals: The EU Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    21. Katsumasa Tanaka & Christian Azar & Olivier Boucher & Philippe Ciais & Yann Gaucher & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-10, May.
    22. Rasmus Karlsson, 2021. "Learning in the Anthropocene," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-11, June.
    23. Hanmin Dong & Xiujie Tan & Si Cheng & Yishuang Liu, 2023. "COVID-19, recovery policies and the resilience of EU ETS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 2965-2991, October.
    24. Azad, Rohit & Chakraborty, Shouvik, 2023. "An Indian Green Deal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    25. Wiethe, Christian & Wenninger, Simon, 2023. "The influence of building energy performance prediction accuracy on retrofit rates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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