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Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

Author

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  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720)

  • Ronald D. Lee

    (Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720)

Abstract

To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua R. Goldstein & Ronald D. Lee, 2020. "Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(36), pages 22035-22041, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:22035-22041
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    Cited by:

    1. Asker, Erdal & Dhongde, Shatakshee & Shonchoy, Abu S., 2025. "COVID-19 and mortality among infants: Evidence from India," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Caulkins, J.P. & Grass, D. & Feichtinger, G. & Hartl, R.F. & Kort, P.M. & Kuhn, M. & Prskawetz, A. & Sanchez-Romero, M. & Seidl, A. & Wrzaczek, S., 2023. "The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 233-250.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2020. "Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Isaac Sasson, 2021. "Age and COVID-19 mortality: A comparison of Gompertz doubling time across countries and causes of death," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(16), pages 379-396.
    5. Leo H. Kahane, 2021. "Politicizing the Mask: Political, Economic and Demographic Factors Affecting Mask Wearing Behavior in the USA," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 163-183, April.
    6. Wolff, Edward N., 2023. "Mortality differentials, the racial and ethnic retirement wealth gap, and the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    7. Muhammad Zubair Chishti, 2023. "COVID-19 and FDI nexus in Pakistan: fresh evidence from QARDL and time-varying casualty techniques," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    9. Godwin Attah Obande & Ahmad Ibrahim Bagudo & Suharni Mohamad & Zakuan Zainy Deris & Azian Harun & Chan Yean Yean & Ismail Aziah & Kirnpal Kaur Banga Singh, 2021. "Current State of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: Lessons for Today and the Future," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Cohen, Philip N., 2020. "The COVID-19 epidemic in rural U.S. counties," SocArXiv pnqrd, Center for Open Science.
    11. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    12. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2026. "In the shadow of a pandemic: Informality and COVID-19 diffusion in Europe," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Ion Papava & Liana Dehelean & Radu Stefan Romosan & Mariana Bondrescu & Cristian Zoltan Dimeny & Eugenia Maria Domuta & Felix Bratosin & Iulia Bogdan & Mirela Loredana Grigoras & Codruta Victoria Tigm, 2022. "The Impact of Hyper-Acute Inflammatory Response on Stress Adaptation and Psychological Symptoms of COVID-19 Patients," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-12, May.
    14. Fernández-Méndez, Carlos & Pathan, Shams, 2022. "Environmental stocks, CEO health risk and COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Robert Fatton, 2021. "The Paradoxes of the Pandemic and World Inequalities," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    16. Strulik, Holger & Grossmann, Volker, 2025. "The unequal effect of pandemics on aging and longevity: A health economic analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    17. Serena Vigezzi & José Manuel Aburto & Iñaki Permanyer & Virginia Zarulli, 2022. "Divergent trends in lifespan variation during mortality crises," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(11), pages 291-336.
    18. Giofré, Maela, 2021. "COVID-19 stringency measures and foreign investment: An early assessment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    20. Christian Estmann & Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2021. "Fiscal policy responses to COVID-19 in Danida priority countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," DERG working paper series 21-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    21. Peng Cui & Zhiyu Dong & Xin Yao & Yifei Cao & Yifan Sun & Lan Feng, 2022. "What Makes Urban Communities More Resilient to COVID-19? A Systematic Review of Current Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-15, August.
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    23. Gul, Nezihe Nazli & Taheri, Saeed & Leeuw, Sander de & Kian, Ramez, 2026. "Fair and effective vaccine allocation during pandemics: A system dynamics model for prioritization of socioeconomically vulnerable populations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 391(C).
    24. Lea Immel & Florian Neumeier & Andreas Peichl, 2022. "The Unequal Consequences of the Covid‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from a Large Representative German Population Survey," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 471-496, June.
    25. Feng, Gen-Fu & Yang, Hao-Chang & Gong, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 705-719.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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