IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v22y2023i4p58-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation Using Wavelet Coherency

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Simon

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Different theories of money lead to different conclusions about whether there is a stable long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. In this analysis, the author examines the wavelet coherency between the growth in the M2 monetary aggregate and inflation in Hungary. Based on the findings, there is no robust long-run relationship between the two variables. When filtering out movements in the HUF exchange rate, the coherency between money growth and inflation is eliminated even over the period from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s. This also empirically supports the assumption that monetary policy does not affect inflation by shaping the money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Simon, 2023. "Analysis of the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation Using Wavelet Coherency," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 22(4), pages 58-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:22:y:2023:i:4:p:58-81
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-22-4-st2-simon.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    2. Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2023. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 18-36.
    3. István Ábel & Kristóf Lehmann & Attila Tapaszti, 2016. "The controversial treatment of money and banks in macroeconomics," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(2), pages 33-58.
    4. Csiki, Máté, 2022. "The Relationship Between Asset Purchases, Monetary Aggregates, and Inflation Between 2007 and 2022 – an Example of the Federal Reserve," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 67(2), pages 248-269.
    5. Scharnagl, Michael & Mandler, Martin, 2015. "The relationship of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates with real GDP and inflation: a wavelet analysis for the US," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112879, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helge Berger & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(5), pages 479-496, November.
    2. Julien Pinter, 2022. "Monetarist arithmetic at COVID‐19 time: A take on how not to misapply the quantity theory of money," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(2), July.
    3. Rodney Edvinsson & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2025. "Does money growth predict inflation in Sweden? Evidence from vector autoregressions using four centuries of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 1613-1635, April.
    4. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Eszter Boros, 2017. "Endogenous Imbalances in a Single Currency Area," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 86-118.
    6. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    7. Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Elmer Sterken & Jan Jacobs, 2024. "Fiscal Impacts of Climate Anomalies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11548, CESifo.
    8. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    9. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro area GDP and inflation: demand vs. supply disturbances," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 475-492, July.
    10. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    11. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Valentina Michelangeli & Fabio Massimo Piersanti, 2025. "Business loan characteristics and inflation shocks transmission in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. István Ábel & Máté Lóga & Gyula Nagy & Árpád Vadkerti, 2019. "Lifting the Veil on Interest," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 29-51.
    14. Xing, Xiaoyun & Wang, Mingsong & Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2020. "Credit creation under multiple banking regulations: The impact of balance sheet diversity on money supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 720-735.
    15. Hartwell, Christopher A & Szybisz, Martin Andres, 2021. "Corralling Expectations: The Role of Institutions in (Hyper)Inflation," MPRA Paper 105612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ricardo J Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2021. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “COVID-19” Shock [Financial intermediaries and the cross-section of asset returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5522-5580.
    17. Markus Pasche, 2018. "Money as an Inflationary Phenomenon," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-11, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    18. Valencia, Oscar & Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana & Sánchez, Gustavo, 2024. "Debt erosion: Asymmetric response to demand and supply shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    19. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    20. Markus Pasche, 2018. "Money as an Inflationary Phenomenon," Jena Economic Research Papers 2018-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:22:y:2023:i:4:p:58-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Morvay Endre to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.