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Analysis of the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation Using Wavelet Coherency

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Listed:
  • Peter Simon

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Different theories of money lead to different conclusions about whether there is a stable long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. In this analysis, the author examines the wavelet coherency between the growth in the M2 monetary aggregate and inflation in Hungary. Based on the findings, there is no robust long-run relationship between the two variables. When filtering out movements in the HUF exchange rate, the coherency between money growth and inflation is eliminated even over the period from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s. This also empirically supports the assumption that monetary policy does not affect inflation by shaping the money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Simon, 2023. "Analysis of the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation Using Wavelet Coherency," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 22(4), pages 58-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:22:y:2023:i:4:p:58-81
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    File URL: https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-22-4-st2-simon.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    2. Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2023. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 18-36.
    3. István Ábel & Kristóf Lehmann & Attila Tapaszti, 2016. "The controversial treatment of money and banks in macroeconomics," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(2), pages 33-58.
    4. Csiki, Máté, 2022. "The Relationship Between Asset Purchases, Monetary Aggregates, and Inflation Between 2007 and 2022 – an Example of the Federal Reserve," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 67(2), pages 248-269.
    5. Scharnagl, Michael & Mandler, Martin, 2015. "The relationship of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates with real GDP and inflation: a wavelet analysis for the US," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112879, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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