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Variance decomposition of sovereign CDS spreads


  • Zalán Kocsis

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Dénes Nagy

    () (Széchenyi Tõkealap-kezelõ Zrt. (Széchenyi Venture Capital Fund))


In this paper we analyse the information content of correlations between daily changes in CDS spreads. Using factor analysis, we can break down the variance of CDS spreads into global, regional and country-specific components. Our results confirm the finding of other studies, namely that there is a strong global factor underlying credit risk spreads. Comparison of different time samples reveals that the global correlation of spreads has become stronger during the financial crisis; at present, the global factor universally affects emerging and developed countries. CDS spreads are most strongly correlated with other countries in geographically interpretable regional country groups. The Hungarian CDS spread generally follows the global factor; in recent years, the escalating crisis on the periphery of the euro area has also affected the country’s spreads. From the summer of 2010 until the end of the year, country-specific events led to a considerable deterioration in Hungary’s risk assessment. However, the shift in the government’s fiscal policy stance in early 2011 restored most of the lost investor confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zalán Kocsis & Dénes Nagy, 2011. "Variance decomposition of sovereign CDS spreads," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 6(3), pages 36-50, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:6:y:2011:i:3:p:36-50

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lóránt Varga, 2009. "The information content of Hungarian sovereign CDS spreads," MNB Occasional Papers 2009/78, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
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    10. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Miroslav Klucik, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustment in Slovakia: Findings from a Medium-Scale Econometric Model," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    2. Zalán Kocsis, 2013. "Global, Regional and Country-Specific Components of Financial Market Indicators: An Extraction Method and Applications," MNB Working Papers 2013/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).

    More about this item


    credit spreads; factor analysis; procrustes rotation;

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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