IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/bullet/v4y2009i1p6-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Backtesting the efficiency of MNB’s Lending Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Ákos Bakonyi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Dániel Homolya

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

This article briefly presents the general practice of lending surveys aimed at revealing loan supply behaviour, as well as the literature analysing their usability. The focus of our analysis is the so-called Lending Survey (SLO), conducted by the MNB since 2003. In the context of our backtesting based on data available up to December 2008, we examined whether there were any contradictions in banks’ responses and how usable the results were from the perspective of lending and growth forecasts. Based on the results, it can be established that banks are consistent in their answers, so there is a strong relationship between their forward-looking and subsequent, retrospective answers. The correlation between the changes in lending standards and the volume of loan portfolios is weak. This is due to the fact that in the Hungarian banking sector the increase in loan portfolios over the past five years may have been influenced not only by supply-side behaviour, but also by demand for loans and economic growth to a great extent. We also examined the correlation between changes in corporate lending standards and GDP growth, which proved to be significant. Nevertheless, we cannot draw conclusions about the direction of the cause and effect relationship based solely on the establishment of correlation, in other words about whether banks act procyclically or whether corporate lending behaviour plays a decisive role in economic growth. The strength of our analysis is limited by the brevity of the available time series and by the fact that we were unable to observe the entire loan cycle during the period under review. Later, with the expansion of the Lending Survey’s data series, it will be worthwhile to pursue our examination.

Suggested Citation

  • Ákos Bakonyi & Dániel Homolya, 2009. "Backtesting the efficiency of MNB’s Lending Survey," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 4(1), pages 6-14, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:6-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/bakonyi-homolya-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 29-34.
    3. Güner, A. Burak, 2008. "Bank lending opportunities and credit standards," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 62-87, April.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    5. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe & Ferrando, Annalisa & Berg, Jesper & Van Rixtel, Adrian & Scopel, Silvia, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    lending survey; Hungary; loan supply behaviour; lending standards.;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:6-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maja Bajcsy). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.