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Cointegration and Causality: An Application to Major Mango Markets in Pakistan


  • Abdul Ghafoor

    () (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Khalid Mustafa

    () (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Khalid Mushtaq

    () (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Abedullah

    () (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)


Mangoes are one of Pakistan’s mostimportant fruits; the country is the world’s fourth largest producer and exporter of mangoes. Integrated markets are those where price signals are transferred from one to another, allowing physical arbitrage to adjust any disturbances in these markets; integrated markets are thus a sign of efficiency. From this viewpoint, we investigate domestic integration amongten major mango markets, i.e., Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Peshawar, and Quetta employing Johansen’s cointegration approach and error correction model. Data on monthly wholesale prices data (PRs/100 kg) were obtained from the agricultural and livestock marketing advisor, Government of Pakistan. The results of the study confirm the presence of integration among major mango markets in Pakistan. These markets were able to adjust for 16 to 68% of disequilibrium in one month, implying that it takes almost two to six months to remove any disequilibrium and to move back to long-run equilibrium. The Granger causality testshows that the Karachi market has bidirectional causality with Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, and a unidirectional relationship with the rest. An impulse response analysis was also conducted to check the stability of these markets given a standard error shock to the Karachi base market.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Ghafoor & Khalid Mustafa & Khalid Mushtaq & Abedullah, 2009. "Cointegration and Causality: An Application to Major Mango Markets in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, Jan-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:14:y:2009:i:1:p:85-113

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Goletti, Francesco & Babu, Suresh, 1994. "Market liberalization and integration of maize markets in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 11(2-3), pages 311-324, December.
    2. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    3. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
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    Cited by:

    1. Badar, Hammad & Ariyawardana, Anoma & Collins, Ray, 2015. "Capturing Consumer Preferences for Value Chain Improvements in the Mango Industry of Pakistan," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA), vol. 18(3).

    More about this item


    Mangoes; cointegration; causality; Pakistan.;

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics


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