IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v63y2024i2d10.1007_s11156-024-01260-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency factor portfolios: Are they there?

Author

Listed:
  • Weihao Han

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • David Newton

    (University of Bath)

  • Emmanouil Platanakis

    (University of Bath)

  • Haoran Wu

    (University of Bath)

  • Libo Xiao

    (University of Aberdeen)

Abstract

We investigate the out-of-sample diversification benefits of cryptocurrencies from a generalised perspective, a cryptocurrency-factor level, with traditional and machine-learning-enhanced asset allocation strategies. The cryptocurrency factor portfolios are formed in an analogous way to equity anomalies by using more than 2000 cryptocurrencies. The findings indicate that a stock–bond portfolio incorporating size- and momentum-based cryptocurrency factors can achieve statistically significant out-of-sample diversification benefits for investors with different risk preferences. Additionally, machine-learning-enhanced asset allocation strategies can boost the traditional approaches by enriching (shrinking) the distributions of weights allocated to potentially effective cryptocurrency factors. Our findings are robust to (i) the inclusion of transaction costs, (ii) an alternative benchmark portfolio, and (iii) a rolling-window estimation scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihao Han & David Newton & Emmanouil Platanakis & Haoran Wu & Libo Xiao, 2024. "The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency factor portfolios: Are they there?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 469-518, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:63:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01260-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-024-01260-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-024-01260-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-024-01260-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kees G. Koedijk & Alfred M.H. Slager & Philip A. Stork, 2016. "Investing in Systematic Factor Premiums," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 193-234, March.
    2. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
    3. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    5. Gregory H. Chun & J. Sa-Aadu & James D. Shilling, 2004. "The Role of Real Estate in an Institutional Investor's Portfolio Revisited," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 295-320, November.
    6. Cai, Charlie X. & Zhao, Ran, 2024. "Salience theory and cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Shea D. Chen & Andrew E. B. Lim, 2020. "A Generalized Black–Litterman Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 381-410, March.
    8. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    9. Raymond Kan & Xiaolu Wang & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Estimation Risk: No Risk-Free Asset Case," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2047-2068, March.
    10. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    11. Gil Cohen, 2021. "Optimizing candlesticks patterns for Bitcoin's trading systems," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1155-1167, October.
    12. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Horses for courses: Mean-variance for asset allocation and 1/N for stock selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 302-317.
    13. Guesmi, Khaled & Saadi, Samir & Abid, Ilyes & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Portfolio diversification with virtual currency: Evidence from bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 431-437.
    14. Borri, Nicola, 2019. "Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Dimitrios Koutmos & Wang Chun Wei, 2023. "Nowcasting bitcoin’s crash risk with order imbalance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 125-154, July.
    16. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-278, July.
    17. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 279-292, September.
    18. Gao, Xin & Nardari, Federico, 2018. "Do Commodities Add Economic Value in Asset Allocation? New Evidence from Time-Varying Moments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 365-393, February.
    19. Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2007. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 41-81, January.
    20. A. Hachicha & F. Hachicha, 2021. "Analysis of the bitcoin stock market indexes using comparative study of two models SV with MCMC algorithm," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 647-673, February.
    21. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta, 2019. "The Blockchain Folk Theorem," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1662-1715.
    22. Cheol S. Eun & Sandy Lai & Frans A. de Roon & Zhe Zhang, 2010. "International Diversification with Factor Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(9), pages 1500-1518, September.
    23. Bessler, Wolfgang & Wolff, Dominik, 2015. "Do commodities add value in multi-asset portfolios? An out-of-sample analysis for different investment strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-20.
    24. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    25. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    27. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2013. "International Stock Return Predictability: What Is the Role of the United States?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1633-1662, August.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1651-1684 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
    30. Anyfantaki, Sofia & Arvanitis, Stelios & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2021. "Diversification benefits in the cryptocurrency market under mild explosivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 378-393.
    31. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    32. Hubert Dichtl & Wolfgang Drobetz & Viktoria‐Sophie Wendt, 2021. "How to build a factor portfolio: Does the allocation strategy matter?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), pages 20-58, January.
    33. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    34. John L. G. Board & Charles M. S. Sutcliffe, 1994. "Estimation Methods in Portfolio Selection and the Effectiveness of Short Sales Restrictions: UK Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 516-534, April.
    35. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    36. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    38. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    39. Emmanouil Platanakis & Charles Sutcliffe, 2017. "Asset–liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 324-352, March.
    40. Yukun Liu & Aleh Tsyvinski & Xi Wu, 2022. "Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1133-1177, April.
    41. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    42. Tzouvanas, Panagiotis & Kizys, Renatas & Tsend-Ayush, Bayasgalan, 2020. "Momentum trading in cryptocurrencies: Short-term returns and diversification benefits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xinyu Huang & Weihao Han & David Newton & Emmanouil Platanakis & Dimitrios Stafylas & Charles Sutcliffe, 2023. "The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency asset categories and estimation risk: pre and post Covid-19," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 800-825, May.
    2. Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the benefits of active stock selection strategies for diversified investors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 342-354.
    3. Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2022. "Does model complexity add value to asset allocation? Evidence from machine learning forecasting models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 603-639, April.
    4. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2022. "The strategic allocation to style-integrated portfolios of commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    5. Marie Brière & Ariane Szafarz, 2021. "When it rains, it pours: Multifactor asset management in good and bad times," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 641-669, September.
    6. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Iason Kynigakis, 2021. "Machine Learning and Factor-Based Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2107.13866, arXiv.org.
    7. Nusret Cakici & Christian Fieberg & Daniel Metko & Adam Zaremba, 2024. "Do Anomalies Really Predict Market Returns? New Data and New Evidence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-44.
    8. Li, Jiahan & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2017. "Equity premium prediction: The role of economic and statistical constraints," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 56-75.
    9. Guo, Xu & Lin, Hai & Wu, Chunchi & Zhou, Guofu, 2022. "Predictive information in corporate bond yields," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    10. Cakici, Nusret & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Machine learning and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Candelon, B. & Hurlin, C. & Tokpavi, S., 2012. "Sampling error and double shrinkage estimation of minimum variance portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 511-527.
    12. Kozak, Serhiy & Nagel, Stefan & Santosh, Shrihari, 2020. "Shrinking the cross-section," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 271-292.
    13. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Yin, Libo & Yang, Zhichen, 2022. "The profitability effect: Insight from a dynamic perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
    16. DeMiguel, Victor & Gil-Bazo, Javier & Nogales, Francisco J. & Santos, André A.P., 2023. "Machine learning and fund characteristics help to select mutual funds with positive alpha," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    17. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2018. "Betas V characteristics: Do stock characteristics enhance the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 114-129.
    18. Cakici, Nusret & Fieberg, Christian & Metko, Daniel & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Machine learning goes global: Cross-sectional return predictability in international stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    19. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    20. Fieberg, Christian & Liedtke, Gerrit & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Cryptocurrency anomalies and economic constraints," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency factors; Portfolio optimisation; Diversification benefits; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:63:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01260-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.