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The Demographic Race between India and China

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Marois

    (Shanghai University
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Stuart Gietel-Basten

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (Shanghai University
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

As India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, questions arise as to whether this demographic shift will lead India to overtake China economically. This paper examines this demographic race beyond population size. Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative to India for most of the next half century given India’s disadvantage in educational attainment and very low female labor force participation. India’s young population could provide a demographic dividend later this century, but only if it makes substantial investments in education and increasing women’s labor force participation rates. The demographic race between giants will be determined more by human capital development than simply by total population size.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Marois & Stuart Gietel-Basten & Wolfgang Lutz, 2025. "The Demographic Race between India and China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-11, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09966-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09966-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
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    3. Jiawei Wu & Guillaume Marois, 2024. "Education Policies and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in China: New Evidence for the 1986–95 Birth Cohort," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-12, June.
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    5. Jonathan David Ostry & Jorge Alvarez & Raphael A Espinoza & Chris Papageorgiou, 2018. "Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion; New Mechanisms, New Evidence," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/06, International Monetary Fund.
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