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Calendar Effects and Real Estate Securities

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  • E. Hui
  • J. Wright
  • S. Yam

Abstract

This paper examines twenty-seven international real estate securities indices from twenty countries and regions for calendar effects. Two methodologies are employed. The first is the standard approach which detects statistically significant anomalies via linear regression of returns. The second, new to the real estate securities literature, tests for economically significant effects through two tests specifically designed to compare multiple forecasts to a benchmark, White’s (Econometrica, 1097–1126, 2000 ) Reality Check and Hansen’s (J Bus Econ Stat 23(4):365–380, 2005 ) Superior Predictive Ability test. The standard approach tells us that while some effects have disappeared over time, statistically significant calendar anomalies persist. However, the tests of White and Hansen strongly suggest that they are not economically significant and thus should not be the basis of an investor’s trading strategy nor be considered as a challenge to market efficiency, as has been claimed previously. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • E. Hui & J. Wright & S. Yam, 2014. "Calendar Effects and Real Estate Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 91-115, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:1:p:91-115
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-012-9398-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Axelsson, Birger & Song, Han-Suck, 2023. "Univariate Forecasting for REITs with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis with an ARIMA Model," Working Paper Series 23/10, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance, revised 14 Nov 2023.
    3. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2018. "Testing Calendar Effects of International Equity and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 140-158, January.
    4. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    5. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Catherine Anitha Manohar & Ivan F. Julio, 2020. "Overreaction in the REITs Market: New Evidence from Quantile Autoregression Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2019. "Alternative trading strategies to beat “buy-and-hold”," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).

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