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Predicting joint replacement waiting times

  • Lauren Cipriano
  • Bert Chesworth
  • Chris Anderson
  • Gregory Zaric


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    Currently, the median waiting time for total hip and knee replacement in Ontario is greater than 6 months. Waiting longer than 6 months is not recommended and may result in lower post-operative benefits. We developed a simulation model to estimate the proportion of patients who would receive surgery within the recommended waiting time for surgery over a 10-year period considering a wide range of demand projections and varying the number of available surgeries. Using an estimate that demand will grow by approximately 8.7% each year for 10 years, we determined that increasing available supply by 10% each year was unable to maintain the status quo for 10 years. Reducing waiting times within 10 years required that the annual supply of surgeries increased by 12% or greater. Allocating surgeries across regions in proportion to each region’s waiting time resulted in a more efficient distribution of surgeries and a greater reduction in waiting times in the long-term compared to allocation strategies based only on the region’s population size. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Health Care Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 195-215

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:195-215
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    1. Lillard, L.A. & Rogowski, J. & Kington, R., 1999. "Insurance Coverage for Prescription Drugs: Effects on Use and Expenditures in the Medicare Population," Papers 99-09, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    2. Edward Kaplan & Mira Johri, 2000. "Treatment on demand: an operational model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 171-183, June.
    3. Jeremy Hurst & Luigi Siciliani, 2003. "Tackling Excessive Waiting Times for Elective Surgery: A Comparison of Policies in Twelve OECD Countries," OECD Health Working Papers 6, OECD Publishing.
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