IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v59y2022i4d10.1007_s10614-020-10088-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Business Risks of Commercial Banks Based on BP-GA Optimized Model

Author

Listed:
  • Qilun Li

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Zhaoyi Xu

    (Hunan University)

  • Xiaoqin Shen

    (Wuhan University)

  • Jiacheng Zhong

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Krungthep)

Abstract

To further explore the influence path of internet finance on the risk prevention and management of commercial banks, the backpropagation neural network optimization algorithm was used to predict the risk value and the change of the risk level of commercial banks under the background of internet environment was empirically studied and analyzed. The results showed that the maximum size of genetic algebra and the number of individuals significantly impacted the algorithm’s optimization performance when the genetic algorithm was used for parameter optimization. Through continuous attempts, the prediction effect was the best when the genetic algebra was 62, and the individual number was 45. The training network showed that the test set’s fitting degree was 96.07%, and the prediction error was 0.84%, which was much better than those before optimization. When the predicted risk value was more significant than 0.39, the bank should be vigilant and strengthen risk prevention. The development of internet finance can reduce commercial banks’ business risk levels, reduce their dependence on traditional business, and decrease commercial banks’ business risk levels. It can be seen that commercial banks can effectively improve risk management ability and efficiency promoted by technological development, so the level of business risk they undertake can be reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Qilun Li & Zhaoyi Xu & Xiaoqin Shen & Jiacheng Zhong, 2022. "Predicting Business Risks of Commercial Banks Based on BP-GA Optimized Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1423-1441, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:59:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-020-10088-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-020-10088-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-020-10088-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-020-10088-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenna J. Burke & Rani Hoitash & Udi Hoitash, 2019. "The Heterogeneity of Board-Level Sustainability Committees and Corporate Social Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 1161-1186, February.
    2. Miklós Pakurár & Hossam Haddad & János Nagy & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2019. "The Impact of Supply Chain Integration and Internal Control on Financial Performance in the Jordanian Banking Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Juhyun Jung & Kathleen Herbohn & Peter Clarkson, 2018. "Carbon Risk, Carbon Risk Awareness and the Cost of Debt Financing," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 150(4), pages 1151-1171, July.
    4. Bai, Chunguang & Shi, Baofeng & Liu, Feng & Sarkis, Joseph, 2019. "Banking credit worthiness: Evaluating the complex relationships," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-38.
    5. Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ballester, Laura & Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Carchano, Oscar & Dimic, Nebojsa & Fernandez, Viviana & Gogolin, Fabian & González-Urteaga, Ana , 2018. "Future directions in international financial integration research - A crowdsourced perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 35-49.
    6. Chen Zhu & Liping Chen, 2018. "An Analysis of the Development of China's Commercial Banks under the Structural Reform of the Supply Side," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8.
    7. Chia-Lee Yang & Ming-Chang Shieh & Chi-Yo Huang & Ching-Pin Tung, 2018. "A Derivation of Factors Influencing the Successful Integration of Corporate Volunteers into Public Flood Disaster Inquiry and Notification Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-31, June.
    8. Colin M. Rose & Julia A. Stegemann, 2018. "From Waste Management to Component Management in the Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Xiaoling Song & Xin Deng & Ruixue Wu, 2019. "Comparing the Influence of Green Credit on Commercial Bank Profitability in China and Abroad: Empirical Test Based on a Dynamic Panel System Using GMM," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Oliver Baumann & Carsten Bergenholtz & Lars Frederiksen & Robert M. Grant & Rebecca Köhler & David L. Preston & Scott Shane, 2018. "Rocket Internet: organizing a startup factory," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Xu, Runjie & Mi, Chuanmin & Mierzwiak, Rafał & Meng, Runyu, 2020. "Complex network construction of Internet finance risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Viehs, Michael, 2021. "Pricing carbon risk: Investor preferences or risk mitigation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Massimo Mariani & Fabio Pizzutilo & Alessandra Caragnano & Marianna Zito, 2021. "Does it pay to be environmentally responsible? Investigating the effect on the weighted average cost of capital: Environmental commitment and the cost of capital," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1854-1869, November.
    3. Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Po-Hsiang & Lin, Meng-Chieh, 2022. "Does green bond issuance have an impact on climate risk concerns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Müller, Isabella & Nguyen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang, 2024. "Carbon transition risk and corporate loan securitization," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    5. Camélia Radu & Nadia Smaili, 2022. "Alignment Versus Monitoring: An Examination of the Effect of the CSR Committee and CSR-Linked Executive Compensation on CSR Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(1), pages 145-163, September.
    6. Liao, Tianlong & Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Lu, Rui, 2023. "Environmental regulation and corporate employment revisited: New quasi-natural experimental evidence from China's new environmental protection law," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Ryo Aruga & Keiichi Goshima & Takashi Chiba, 2022. "CO2 Emissions and Corporate Performance: Japan's Evidence with Double Machine Learning," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Duan Ji & Yuyu Liu & Lin Zhang & Jingjing An & Wenyan Sun, 2020. "Green Social Responsibility and Company Financing Cost-Based on Empirical Studies of Listed Companies in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Manahov, Viktor & Urquhart, Andrew, 2021. "The efficiency of Bitcoin: A strongly typed genetic programming approach to smart electronic Bitcoin markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Gutiérrez-López, Cristina & Castro, Paula & Tascón, María T., 2022. "How can firms' transition to a low-carbon economy affect the distance to default?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Domenico Morrone & Rosamartina Schena & Danilo Conte & Candida Bussoli & Angeloantonio Russo, 2022. "Between saying and doing, in the end there is the cost of capital: Evidence from the energy sector," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 390-402, January.
    12. Yousaf Raza, Muhammad & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Oil for Pakistan: What are the main factors affecting the oil import?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    13. Govindan, Kannan & Kilic, Merve & Uyar, Ali & Karaman, Abdullah S., 2021. "Drivers and value-relevance of CSR performance in the logistics sector: A cross-country firm-level investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    14. Jannik Gerwanski, 2020. "Does it pay off? Integrated reporting and cost of debt: European evidence," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 2299-2319, September.
    15. Wu, Junfeng & Liu, Baohua & Chang, Samuel & Chan, Kam C., 2022. "Effects of air pollution on accounting conservatism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Si, Jingjian & Zhou, Jinsheng & Gao, Xiangyun & Ze, Wang & Tao, Wu & Zhao, Yiran, 2022. "Reconstructing a complex financial network using compressed sensing based on low-frequency time series data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 49-57.
    18. Son, Bumho & Jang, Huisu, 2023. "Economics of blockchain-based securities settlement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 584-593.
    20. Nur Fitriyah, 2019. "Financial Development and Environmental Degradation in Indonesia: Evidence from Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Method," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 394-400.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:59:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-020-10088-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.