IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v42y2014i4p357-366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction Markets and Election Polling: Granger Causality Tests Using InTrade and RealClearPolitics Data

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Duquette
  • Franklin Mixon
  • Richard Cebula
  • Kamal Upadhyaya

Abstract

This study tests for direct causality between RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages and InTrade (IT) share-prices by performing Granger causality tests. These tests are applied to the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Three time series are considered in this analysis of causal links between RCP and IT. In all of the estimations, the null hypothesis that IT does not Granger cause RCP cannot be rejected. On the other hand, the null hypothesis that RCP does not Granger cause IT is rejected in a majority of cases. Overall, these results imply that RCP Granger causes IT. While the behavior of participants in prediction markets such as InTrade is informed by political polling, these Granger causality test results suggest that prediction markets add little to what is forecasted by the polls, particularly aggregation polls such as that from RealClearPolitics, regarding the outcome of presidential elections. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Duquette & Franklin Mixon & Richard Cebula & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2014. "Prediction Markets and Election Polling: Granger Causality Tests Using InTrade and RealClearPolitics Data," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 357-366, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:357-366
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-014-9430-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11293-014-9430-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-014-9430-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demissew Diro Ejara & Raja Nag & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2012. "Opinion polls and the stock market: evidence from the 2008 US presidential election," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 437-443, March.
    2. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
    3. Arjun Chatrath & Rohan Christie-David & William T. Moore, 2006. "The Macroeconomic News Cycle and Uncertainty Resolution," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2633-2658, September.
    4. Richard Cebula & Daniel Hulse, 2007. "The Poll Results Hypothesis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(1), pages 33-41, March.
    5. John Morgan & Phillip C. Stocken, 2008. "Information Aggregation in Polls," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 864-896, June.
    6. Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Jean‐Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Richard Cebula & Holly Meads, 2008. "An Inquiry into the Contemporary Differential between Female and Male Voter Turnouts," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(3), pages 301-313, September.
    9. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
    10. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    11. Leamer, Edward E, 1988. "Things That Bother Me," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 331-335, December.
    12. Brown, William O, Jr, 1996. "Friends in High Places: The Wealth Effects of JFK's Assassination on the Assets of LBJ's Supporters," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 86(3-4), pages 247-256, March.
    13. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
    14. Rohan Christie‐David & Mukesh Chaudhry & James T. Lindley, 2003. "The Effects of Unanticipated Macroeconomic News on Debt Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 319-339, September.
    15. Jeremy Burke & Curtis Taylor, 2008. "What’s in a poll? Incentives for truthful reporting in pre-election opinion surveys," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 221-244, October.
    16. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
    17. Attfield, C. L. F., 1982. "An adjustment to the likelihood ratio statistic when testing hypotheses in the multivariate linear model using large samples : A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 345-348.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "Causality and contagion in EMU sovereign debt markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-27.
    3. Satya Paul & Colm Kearney & Kabir Chowdhury, 1997. "Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1387-1401.
    4. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    5. Andonie, Costel & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2012. "Pre-election polls as strategic coordination devices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 681-700.
    6. Galanis, S. & Ioannou, C. & Kotronis, S., 2019. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
    7. Yuji Nakano & Yasunori Okabe, 2012. "A Time Series Analysis of Economical Phenomena in Japan’s Lost Decade (1): Determinacy Property of the Velocity of Money and Equilibrium Solution," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 19(4), pages 371-389, November.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:19:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dagher, Leila & Yacoubian, Talar, 2012. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 795-801.
    10. Aaltonen, J. & Östermark, R., 1997. "A rolling test of granger causality between the Finnish and Japanese security markets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 635-642, December.
    11. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
    12. Cedric Mbanga & Ali F. Darrat & Jung Chul Park, 2019. "Investor sentiment and aggregate stock returns: the role of investor attention," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 397-428, August.
    13. Santos, Carlos Filipe & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2014. "O nexus energia-crescimento e o nível da auto-suficiência na produção de petróleo: análise com macro painel [Energy-growth nexus and oil self-sufficiency: macro panel analysis]," MPRA Paper 57008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jaruwan Chontanawat & Lester C Hunt & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 113, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    16. Antonio Fernandois & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 57-90, October.
    17. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: The role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 835-845.
    18. Madden, Gary & Savage, Scott J., 1998. "CEE telecommunications investment and economic growth," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 173-195, June.
    19. Goutam Dutta & Pankaj Jha & Arnab Kumar Laha & Neeraj Mohan, 2006. "Artificial Neural Network Models for Forecasting Stock Price Index in the Bombay Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 5(3), pages 283-295, December.
    20. Huang, Xu & Hassani, Hossein & Ghodsi, Mansi & Mukherjee, Zinnia & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Do trend extraction approaches affect causality detection in climate change studies?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 604-624.
    21. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prediction markets; Elections polling; Voter preferences; InTrade; Granger causality; D72; D83; G12; G14; D70; D80;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:357-366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.