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Twenty Steps Towards an Adequate Inferential Interpretation of p-Values in Econometrics

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  • Hirschauer Norbert
  • Grüner Sven

    (Faculty of Natural Sciences III, Institute of Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Agribusiness Management, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Karl-Freiherr-von-Fritsch-Str. 4, D-06120 Halle(Saale), Germany)

  • Mußhoff Oliver

    (Department for Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Farm Management, Georg August University Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5, D-37073Göttingen, Germany)

  • Becker Claudia

    (Faculty of Law and Economics, Institute of Business Studies, Chair of Statistics, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Große Steinstraße 73, D-06099 Halle(Saale), Germany)

Abstract

We suggest twenty immediately actionable steps to reduce widespread inferential errors related to “statistical significance testing.” Our propositions refer to the theoretical preconditions for using p-values. They furthermore include wording guidelines as well as structural and operative advice on how to present results, especially in research based on multiple regression analysis, the working horse of empirical economists. Our propositions aim at fostering the logical consistency of inferential arguments by avoiding false categorical reasoning. They are not aimed at dispensing with p-values or completely replacing frequentist approaches by Bayesian statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirschauer Norbert & Grüner Sven & Mußhoff Oliver & Becker Claudia, 2019. "Twenty Steps Towards an Adequate Inferential Interpretation of p-Values in Econometrics," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 703-721, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:239:y:2019:i:4:p:703-721:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2018-0069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hirschauer, Norbert & Grüner, Sven & Mußhoff, Oliver & Becker, Claudia & Jantsch, Antje, 2020. "Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14, pages 71-91.
    2. Grüner Sven, 2020. "Sample Size Calculation in Economic Experiments," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(6), pages 791-823, December.
    3. Herzfeld, Thomas & Akhmadiyeva, Zarema, 2021. "Agricultural labour in transition: An update," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 144-160.
    4. David J. Hand, 2022. "Trustworthiness of statistical inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 329-347, January.
    5. Hirschauer, Norbert & Grüner, Sven & Mußhoff, Oliver & Becker, Claudia, 2020. "Inference in economic experiments," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-14.
    6. Hirschauer, Norbert & Gruener, Sven & Mußhoff, Oliver & Becker, Claudia, 2020. "A primer on p-value thresholds and α-levels – two different kettles of fish," SocArXiv d46m2, Center for Open Science.
    7. Elisa Giampietri & Giuseppe Bugin & Samuele Trestini, 2021. "On the association between risk attitude and fruit and vegetable consumption: insights from university students in Italy," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.

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