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Improving the Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: a Posterior Simulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey A. Mills
  • Gary Cornwall
  • Beau A. Sauley
  • Jeffrey R. Strawn

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Abstract

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the standard for establishing efficacy and tolerability of treatments. However, the statistical evaluation of treatment effects in RCTs has remained largely unchanged for several decades. A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing for RCTs that leverages posterior simulation methods is developed. This approach (1) employs Monte Carlo simulation to obtain exact posterior distributions with fewer restrictive assumptions than required by current standard methods, allowing for a relatively simple procedure for inference with analytically intractable models, and (2) utilizes a novel approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Mills & Gary Cornwall & Beau A. Sauley & Jeffrey R. Strawn, 2018. "Improving the Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: a Posterior Simulation Approach," BEA Working Papers 0157, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:bea:wpaper:0157
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    File URL: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/WP2018-9.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blakeley B. McShane & David Gal, 2017. "Rejoinder: Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 904-908, July.
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    3. Williamson, S. Faye & Jacko, Peter & Villar, Sofía S. & Jaki, Thomas, 2017. "A Bayesian adaptive design for clinical trials in rare diseases," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 136-153.
    4. Blakeley B. McShane & David Gal, 2017. "Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 885-895, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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