Decision Analysis by Augmented Probability Simulation
We provide a generic Monte Carlo method to find the alternative of maximum expected utility in a decision analysis. We define an artificial distribution on the product space of alternatives and states, and show that the optimal alternative is the mode of the implied marginal distribution on the alternatives. After drawing a sample from the artificial distribution, we may use exploratory data analysis tools to approximately identify the optimal alternative. We illustrate our method for some important types of influence diagrams.
Volume (Year): 45 (1999)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shenoy, Prakash P., 1994. "A comparison of graphical techniques for decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-21, October.
- Izhar Matzkevich & Bruce Abramson, 1995. "Decision Analytic Networks in Artificial Intelligence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Allen C. Miller, III & Thomas R. Rice, 1983. "Discrete Approximations of Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 352-362, March.
- James E. Smith, 1993. "Moment Methods for Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 340-358, March.
- Brewer, M. J. & Aitken, C. G. G. & Talbot, M., 1996. "A comparison of hybrid strategies for Gibbs sampling in mixed graphical models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 343-365, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:45:y:1999:i:7:p:995-1007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.