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Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation

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  • César Gil
  • David Rios Insua
  • Jesus Rios

Abstract

Adversarial risk analysis (ARA) provides a framework to deal with risks originating from intentional actions of adversaries. We show how ARA may be used to allocate security resources in the protection of urban spaces. We take into account the spatial structure and consider both proactive and reactive measures, in that we aim at both trying to reduce criminality as well as recovering as best as possible from it, should it happen. We deal with the problem by deploying an ARA model over each spatial unit, coordinating the models through resource constraints, value aggregation, and proximity. We illustrate our approach with an example that uncovers several relevant policy issues.

Suggested Citation

  • César Gil & David Rios Insua & Jesus Rios, 2016. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 727-741, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:4:p:727-741
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12580
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael Macgregor Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2021. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Papers 2110.12572, arXiv.org.
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    5. Michael Macgregor Perry, 2021. "Analyzing a Complex Game for the South China Sea Fishing Dispute using Response Surface Methodologies," Papers 2110.12568, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.

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