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Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Sevillano

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • David Rios Insua

    (Royal Academy of Sciences, 28004 Madrid, Spain)

  • Jesus Rios

    (IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598)

Abstract

We show how adversarial risk analysis may cope with a current important security issue in relation with piracy off the Somali coasts. Specifically, we describe how to support the owner of a ship in managing risks from piracy in that area. We illustrate how a sequential defend--attack--defend model can be used to formulate this decision problem and solve it for the ship owner. Our formulation models the pirates' behavior through the analysis of how they could solve their decision problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Sevillano & David Rios Insua & Jesus Rios, 2012. "Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 86-95, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:86-95
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1110.0225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Enrico Diecidue & Robin L. Dillon-Merrill & Raimo P. Hämäläinen & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W, 2012. "From the Editors ---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 297-302, December.
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    6. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    7. Michael Macgregor Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2021. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Papers 2110.12572, arXiv.org.
    8. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    9. Michael Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2019. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 314-332, December.
    10. César Gil & David Rios Insua & Jesus Rios, 2016. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security Resource Allocation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 727-741, April.
    11. David Rios Insua & David Banks & Jesus Rios, 2016. "Modeling Opponents in Adversarial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 742-755, April.
    12. William N. Caballero & Ethan Gharst & David Banks & Jeffery D. Weir, 2023. "Multipolar Security Cooperation Planning: A Multiobjective, Adversarial-Risk-Analysis Approach," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 16-39, March.
    13. González-Ortega, Jorge & Ríos Insua, David & Cano, Javier, 2019. "Adversarial risk analysis for bi-agent influence diagrams: An algorithmic approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(3), pages 1085-1096.
    14. Muhammad Ejaz & Stephen Joe & Chaitanya Joshi, 2021. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Auctions Using Mirror Equilibrium and Bayes Nash Equilibrium," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 185-202, September.

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