IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ordeca/v9y2012i2p172-185.html

Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents

Author

Listed:
  • Sumitra Sri Bhashyam

    (Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Sciences, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom)

  • Gilberto Montibeller

    (Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Sciences, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom)

Abstract

With ever-increasing terror threats, governments and security officials would benefit from a better understanding of what motivates terrorists to cause social unrest. A recent research trend is on gaining greater knowledge about the values of malicious agents to help manage the risk of terrorism. As a result, there seems to be the potential to use decision analysis as a means to model what may drive malicious agents to commit harmful actions. So far, research on this topic has assumed static preferences of such agents. In this paper, we present a framework that may be used to infer how terrorists' priorities may change over time and their impact on their choice of a harmful action. We suggest modeling state-dependent priorities of a terrorist group via a multicriteria model that incorporates state-dependent priorities to account for preference change caused by exogenous triggers and representing the environment as a system dynamics model. We describe how terrorists' visceral factors may affect the prioritization of objectives and show how such an analysis may support risk management in this context.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2012. "Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 172-185, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:172-185
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1120.0237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1120.0237
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/deca.1120.0237?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George Loewenstein, 2000. "Emotions in Economic Theory and Economic Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 426-432, May.
    2. Loewenstein, George, 1996. "Out of Control: Visceral Influences on Behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 272-292, March.
    3. S P Santos & V Belton & S Howick, 2008. "Enhanced performance measurement using OR: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(6), pages 762-775, June.
    4. Raghunathan, Rajagopal & Pham, Michel Tuan, 1999. "All Negative Moods Are Not Equal: Motivational Influences of Anxiety and Sadness on Decision Making, , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 56-77, July.
    5. Jon Elster, 1998. "Emotions and Economic Theory," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 47-74, March.
    6. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834, January.
    7. Choucri, Nazli & Goldsmith, Daniel & Madnick, Stuart E. & Mistree, Dinsha & Morrison, J. Bradley & Siegel, Michael, 2007. "Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability," Working papers 39650, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    8. Detlof von Winterfeldt & Terrence M. O'Sullivan, 2006. "Should We Protect Commercial Airplanes Against Surface-to-Air Missile Attacks by Terrorists?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(2), pages 63-75, June.
    9. Jason Merrick & Gregory S. Parnell, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(9), pages 1488-1510, September.
    10. Bennett, Peter & Howard, Nigel, 1996. "Rationality, emotion and preference change Drama-theoretic models of choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 603-614, August.
    11. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    12. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.
    13. Gregory S. Parnell & Christopher M. Smith & Frederick I. Moxley, 2010. "Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 32-48, January.
    14. Sandler, Todd & Lapan, Harvey E., 1988. "The Calculus of Dissent: An Analysis of Terrorists' Choice of Targets," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10818, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Brans, J. P. & Macharis, C. & Kunsch, P. L. & Chevalier, A. & Schwaninger, M., 1998. "Combining multicriteria decision aid and system dynamics for the control of socio-economic processes. An iterative real-time procedure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 428-441, September.
    16. Kunsch, P. & Springael, J., 2008. "Simulation with system dynamics and fuzzy reasoning of a tax policy to reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1285-1299, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    2. Jaspersen, Johannes G. & Montibeller, Gilberto, 2020. "On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 221-234.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2016. "In the Opponent's Shoes: Increasing the Behavioral Validity of Attackers’ Judgments in Counterterrorism Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 666-680, April.
    2. Brendan Markey-Towler, 2018. "Salience, chains and anchoring. Reducing complexity and enhancing the practicality of behavioural economics," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 2(1), pages 83-90, March.
    3. Dogucan Mazicioglu & Jason R. W. Merrick, 2018. "Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 962-977, May.
    4. Ibanez, Lisette & Moureau, Nathalie & Roussel, Sébastien, 2017. "How do incidental emotions impact pro-environmental behavior? Evidence from the dictator game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 150-155.
    5. Frans van Winden & Mirre Stallen & K. Richard Ridderinkhof, 2008. "On the Nature, Modeling, and Neural Bases of Social Ties," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-063/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Grichnik, Dietmar & Smeja, Alexander & Welpe, Isabell, 2010. "The importance of being emotional: How do emotions affect entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and exploitation?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 15-29, October.
    7. Lina Koppel & David Andersson & India Morrison & Kinga Posadzy & Daniel Västfjäll & Gustav Tinghög, 2017. "The effect of acute pain on risky and intertemporal choice," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(4), pages 878-893, December.
    8. Steven J. Stanton & Crystal Reeck & Scott A. Huettel & Kevin S. LaBar, 2014. "Effects of induced moods on economic choices," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(2), pages 167-175, March.
    9. Ernesto Reuben & Frans van Winden, 2004. "Reciprocity and Emotions when Reciprocators know each other," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-098/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Emmanuel PETIT, 2010. "The role of regret in the persistence of anomalies in financial markets (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2010-07, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    11. Shahriar, Abu Zafar M. & Alam, Quamrul, 2024. "Violence against women, innate preferences and financial inclusion," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Michelle Baddeley, 2014. "Rethinking the micro-foundations of macroeconomics: insights from behavioural economics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 99-112, April.
    13. Ronald Bosman & Frans Van Winden, 2010. "Global Risk, Investment and Emotions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(307), pages 451-471, July.
    14. Pixley, Jocelyn, 2010. "The use of risk in understanding financial decisions and institutional uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 209-222, April.
    15. Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Conny Wollbrant, 2011. "Naïve and capricious: Stumbling into the ring of self-control conflict," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-11-09, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
    16. Thomas, Ranjeeta & Galizzi, Matteo M. & Moorhouse, Louisa & Nyamukapa, Constance & Hallett, Timothy B., 2024. "Do risk, time and prosocial preferences predict risky sexual behaviour of youths in a low-income, high-risk setting?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Kim Kaivanto, 2014. "Visceral emotions, within-community communication, and (ill-judged) endorsement of financial propositions," Working Papers 69123498, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    18. Jesus Rios & David Rios Insua, 2012. "Adversarial Risk Analysis for Counterterrorism Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 894-915, May.
    19. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael & Parsons, Christopher, 2023. "Peacefully Demobilizing Rebels: Identity, Emotional Cues, and the FARC," IZA Discussion Papers 16054, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:5:p:988-1014 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brendan Markey-Towler, 2017. "How to win customers and influence people: Ameliorating the barriers to inducing behavioural change," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 1(S), pages 27-32, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:172-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.