IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mit/sloanp/39650.html

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Choucri, Nazli
  • Goldsmith, Daniel
  • Madnick, Stuart E.
  • Mistree, Dinsha
  • Morrison, J. Bradley
  • Siegel, Michael

Abstract

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the €جoads€٠generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its €أapacity€٠to withstand these €جoads€٬ on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Choucri, Nazli & Goldsmith, Daniel & Madnick, Stuart E. & Mistree, Dinsha & Morrison, J. Bradley & Siegel, Michael, 2007. "Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability," Working papers 39650, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:39650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doyle, Michael W., 1986. "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1151-1169, December.
    2. repec:wbk:wbpubs:13938 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    2. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2012. "Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 172-185, June.
    3. Koen van der Zwet & Ana I Barros & Tom M van Engers & Peter M A Sloot, 2023. "Promises and pitfalls of computational modelling for insurgency conflicts," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 20(3), pages 333-350, July.
    4. Giorgio Gallo, 2013. "Conflict Theory, Complexity and Systems Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 156-175, March.
    5. Jelena Ristić Trajković & Verica Krstić & Aleksandra Milovanović & Cristina Sousa Coutinho Calheiros & Mirjana Ćujić & Milica Karanac & Jan K. Kazak & Sara Di Lonardo & Rocío Pineda-Martos & Mari Carm, 2024. "Moving Towards a Holistic Approach to Circular Cities: Obstacles and Perspectives for Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-24, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. T. Clifton Morgan & Sally Howard Campbell, 1991. "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 187-211, June.
    2. Beth A. Simmons, 2002. "Capacity, Commitment, and Compliance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(6), pages 829-856, December.
    3. James Lee Ray, 2005. "Constructing Multivariate Analyses (of Dangerous Dyads)," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 277-292, September.
    4. repec:osf:osfxxx:8h6fs_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Wockenfuß, Christof, 2009. "Demokratie durch Entwicklungskonkurrenz," Discussion Papers 2009-17, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    6. Lingyu Lu & Cameron G. Thies, 2010. "Trade Interdependence and the Issues at Stake in the Onset of Militarized Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 347-368, September.
    7. Idean Salehyan, 2010. "The Delegation of War to Rebel Organizations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(3), pages 493-515, June.
    8. David Brulé, 2006. "Congressional Opposition, the Economy, and U.S. Dispute Initiation, 1946-2000," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(4), pages 463-483, August.
    9. David Carment & Patrick James, 1995. "Internal Constraints and Interstate Ethnic Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 82-109, March.
    10. Sally Anderson & Mark Souva, 2010. "The Accountability Effects of Political Institutions and Capitalism on Interstate Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(4), pages 543-565, August.
    11. Terrence L. Chapman, 2007. "International Security Institutions, Domestic Politics, and Institutional Legitimacy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 134-166, February.
    12. Kenneth Benoit, 1996. "Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General)," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(4), pages 636-657, December.
    13. Russell J. Leng, 1993. "Reciprocating Influence Strategies in Interstate Crisis Bargaining," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 3-41, March.
    14. Destradi, Sandra, 2010. "A Regional Power Promoting Democracy? India's Involvement in Nepal (2005-2008)," GIGA Working Papers 138, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Michael W. Simon & Erik Gartzke, 1996. "Political System Similarity And The Choice of Allies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(4), pages 617-635, December.
    16. Jennifer Brauner, 2015. "Military spending and democracy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 409-423, August.
    17. Akos Lada, 2013. "Clash of Brothers in a Contagious World: Wars to Avoid Diffusion," KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS 1333, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    18. David H. Bearce & Eric O'N. Fisher, 2002. "Economic Geography, Trade, and War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(3), pages 365-393, June.
    19. Alexander H. Montgomery & Scott D. Sagan, 2009. "The Perils of Predicting Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 302-328, April.
    20. Jacques Fontanel, 2003. "The dangerous relations between national economies and war," Post-Print hal-02984534, HAL.
    21. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:39650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: None The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask None to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssmitus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.