IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mit/sloanp/39650.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Choucri, Nazli
  • Goldsmith, Daniel
  • Madnick, Stuart E.
  • Mistree, Dinsha
  • Morrison, J. Bradley
  • Siegel, Michael

Abstract

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the €جoads€٠generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its €أapacity€٠to withstand these €جoads€٬ on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Choucri, Nazli & Goldsmith, Daniel & Madnick, Stuart E. & Mistree, Dinsha & Morrison, J. Bradley & Siegel, Michael, 2007. "Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability," Working papers 39650, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:39650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39650
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doyle, Michael W., 1986. "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1151-1169, December.
    2. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Gallo, 2013. "Conflict Theory, Complexity and Systems Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 156-175, March.
    2. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2012. "Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 172-185, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Håvard Hegre, 2005. "Development and the Liberal Peace," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 31, pages 17-46.
    2. Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 53, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Chang Woon Nam & Jan Schumacher, 2014. "Dynamics and Time Frameof Post War Recovery Required for Compensating Civil War Economic Losses," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(03), pages 79-87, August.
    4. Michael Watts, 2007. "Petro-Insurgency or Criminal Syndicate? Conflict & Violence in the Niger Delta," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(114), pages 637-660, December.
    5. Diego Esparza & Jessica Lucas & Enrique Martinez & James Meernik & Ignacio Molinero & Victoria Nevarez, 2020. "Movement of the people: Violence and internal displacement," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 233-250, September.
    6. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.
    7. Alison J. Ayers, 2010. "Sudan's uncivil war: the global--historical constitution of political violence," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(124), pages 153-171, June.
    8. T. Clifton Morgan & Sally Howard Campbell, 1991. "Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 187-211, June.
    9. Satoru Kumagai, 2015. "The Middle-Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-23.
    10. Leakey, Roger & Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana & Caron, Patrick & Craufurd, Peter & Martin, Adrienne M. & McDonald, Andy & Abedini, Walter & Afiff, Suraya & Bakurin, Ndey & Bass, Steve & Hilbeck, Ange, 2009. "Impacts of AKST on development and sustainability goals," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    11. Valencia Caicedo, Felipe & Riano, Juan Felipe, 2020. "Collateral Damage: The Legacy of the Secret War in Laos," CEPR Discussion Papers 15349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Beth A. Simmons, 2002. "Capacity, Commitment, and Compliance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(6), pages 829-856, December.
    13. Flores Thomas Edward, 2014. "Vertical Inequality, Land Reform, and Insurgency in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, January.
    14. Julie Kaye, 2011. "Informing Grassroots Development: The 1994-1995 Peacebuilding Experience in Northern Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 417-435.
    15. Elisabeth Gilmore & Nils Petter Gleditsch & Päivi Lujala & Jan Ketil Rod, 2005. "Conflict Diamonds: A New Dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(3), pages 257-272, July.
    16. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/080, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Brou E Aka & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Amor Tahari & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/176, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Gaia Narciso & Battista Severgnini, 2016. "The Deep Roots of Rebellion: Evidence from the Irish Revolution," Trinity Economics Papers tep2216, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    19. Mayuko Onuki & Keitaro Aoyagi & Yoshito Takasaki, 2021. "Personal Intergroup Contact Between Different Groups of Ex-Combatants and Civilians: Evidence from a Behavioural Experiment in Rwanda," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1174, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    20. James Lee Ray, 2005. "Constructing Multivariate Analyses (of Dangerous Dyads)," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 277-292, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:39650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: None (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssmitus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.