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Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic

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  • Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura
  • Benoît Mercereau

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence that the propensity for political instability in the Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has been increased by low tax revenues and deteriorations in the terms of trade. The direct effect of political instability on economic growth is not statistically significant, once account is taken of domestic investment, and economic growth in neighboring countries. The policy implications are: (i) mobilization of domestic revenues to pay public employees' salaries and provide basic social services would lower the probability of coups; (ii) economic diversification would reduce the propensity for adverse terms of trade shocks to fuel coups; and (iii) neighboring countries' efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained growth would be beneficial for the C.A.R.'s economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth: The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/080, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/080
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Therese F. Azeng & Thierry U. Yogo, 2015. "Youth Unemployment, Education and Political Instability: Evidence from Selected Developing Countries 1991-2009," HiCN Working Papers 200, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Therese F. Azeng & Thierry Yogo Urbain, 2013. "Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries," Working Paper Series 467, African Development Bank.
    3. Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral & Estrada, Fernando, 2011. "Taxation and political stability," MPRA Paper 36855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
    4. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
    5. Mr. Mark W Lewis & Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega & Mr. Said A Bakhache & Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji, 2006. "Assessing Competitiveness After Conflict: The Case of the Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 2006/303, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Estrada, Fernando & Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral, 2011. "Estabilidad política y tributación [Taxation and political stability]," MPRA Paper 32414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Estrada, Fernando, 2013. "Estabilidad política y poder fiscal [political stability and tax power]," MPRA Paper 58458, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    8. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 2006/185, International Monetary Fund.
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