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Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program

Author

Listed:
  • David J. Caswell

    (Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Ronald A. Howard

    (Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

    (Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

Abstract

Finding the best national strategy to prevent or delay a country from acquiring nuclear weapons continues to be a critical issue for U.S. policy makers. In this paper, we build on previous work to develop a model that addresses this question. This model identifies the strategy that minimizes the disutility of the overall cost of the strategy and the cost of the consequences resulting from the strategy. We illustrate the insights that the model provides with a case study of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Suggested Citation

  • David J. Caswell & Ronald A. Howard & M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2011. "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 30-45, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:8:y:2011:i:1:p:30-45
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1110.0198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jason R. W. Merrick & Fabrizio Ruggeri & Refik Soyer & L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 81-85, June.
    2. M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, 2012. "Games, Risks, and Analytics: Several Illustrative Cases Involving National Security and Management Situations," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 186-203, June.
    3. L. Robin Keller, 2012. "From the Editor---Decisions over Time (Exploding Offers or Purchase Regret), in Game Settings (Embedded Nash Bargaining or Adversarial Games), and in Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, March.
    4. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    5. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2011. "From the Editors---Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(2), pages 83-87, June.
    6. Rakesh K. Sarin & L. Robin Keller, 2013. "From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5, March.
    7. L. Robin Keller & Ali Abbas & J. Eric Bickel & Vicki M. Bier & David V. Budescu & John C. Butler & Philippe Delquié & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl & Jason R. W. Merrick & Ahti Salo & George Wu, 2011. "From the Editors ---Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 251-255, December.
    8. Shane N. Hall & Mark A. Gallagher & Daniel S. Fenn, 2020. "Risk Framework for an Organizational System With Major Components," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(12), pages 2509-2523, December.
    9. L. Robin Keller, 2011. "Investment and Defense Strategies, Heuristics, and Games: From the Editor ..," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 1-3, March.
    10. Liang, Liang & Chen, Jingxian & Siqueira, Kevin, 2020. "Revenge or continued attack and defense in defender–attacker conflicts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 1180-1190.

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