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Real-Time Trading Models and the Statistical Properties of Foreign Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ramazan GenÁay

    (University of Windsor, Canada)

  • Giuseppe Ballocchi

    (Olsen & Associates, Switzerland)

  • Michel Dacorogna

    (Converium, Switzerland)

  • Richard Olsen

    (Dynamic Asset Management, Switzerland)

  • Olivier Pictet

    (Dynamic Asset Management, Switzerland)

Abstract

The contributions of this article are twofold. First, the performance of a widely used commercial real-time trading model is compared with the performance of systematic currency traders. Second, the real-time trading model is used to evaluate the statistical properties of foreign exchange rates. The out-of-sample test period is seven years of high-frequency data for four major rates. The trading model yields positive annualized returns (net of transaction costs) in all cases. The null hypothesis of whether the real-time performances of the foreign exchange series are consistent with traditional statistical processes is tested under the probability distributions of the performance measures. Copyright Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association

Suggested Citation

  • Ramazan GenÁay & Giuseppe Ballocchi & Michel Dacorogna & Richard Olsen & Olivier Pictet, 2002. "Real-Time Trading Models and the Statistical Properties of Foreign Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 463-492, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:43:y:2002:i:2:p:463-492
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    Cited by:

    1. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen & Huang, Paoyu, 2019. "Trading as sharp movements in oil prices and technical trading signals emitted with big data concerns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 349-372.
    2. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    3. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ahmed, Ali & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Multi-scale causality and extreme tail inter-dependence among housing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 301-309.
    6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jialin Yu, 2008. "High Frequency Market Microstructure Noise Estimates and Liquidity Measures," NBER Working Papers 13825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic & Faruk Selcuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2010. "Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 895-915.
    8. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2015. "Heuristic learning in intraday trading under uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 34-49.
    9. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Mykland, Per A. & Zhang, Lan, 2011. "Ultra high frequency volatility estimation with dependent microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 160-175, January.
    10. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "A time–frequency comovement and causality relationship between Bitcoin hashrate and energy commodity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Meddahi, Nour & Renault, Eric, 2004. "Temporal aggregation of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 355-379, April.
    12. Jiali Fang & Ben Jacobsen & Yafeng Qin, 2014. "Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out‐of‐sample test," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 30-45, January.
    13. Walid Omrane & Hervé Oppens, 2006. "The performance analysis of chart patterns: Monte Carlo simulation and evidence from the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 947-971, January.
    14. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    15. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika & Narayan, Seema & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2015. "Is Exchange Rate Trading Profitable?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 217-229.
    17. Ni, Yensen & Liao, Yi-Ching & Huang, Paoyu, 2015. "MA trading rules, herding behaviors, and stock market overreaction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 253-265.
    18. Selçuk, Faruk & Gençay, Ramazan, 2006. "Intraday dynamics of stock market returns and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 375-387.
    19. Balvers, Ronald & Wu, Yangru, 2010. "Optimal transaction filters under transitory trading opportunities: Theory and empirical illustration," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 129-156, February.
    20. Wright, Calvin & Swidler, Steve, 2023. "Abnormal trading volume, news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    21. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.

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