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Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle

Author

Listed:
  • Samira Ranaei
  • Matti Karvonen
  • Arho Suominen
  • Tuomo Kässi

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R%D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Samira Ranaei & Matti Karvonen & Arho Suominen & Tuomo Kässi, 2016. "Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle," International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 20-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijetpo:v:12:y:2016:i:1:p:20-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Krystian Pietrzak & Oliwia Pietrzak, 2020. "Environmental Effects of Electromobility in a Sustainable Urban Public Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Christian Ulrich & Benjamin Frieske & Stephan A. Schmid & Horst E. Friedrich, 2022. "Monitoring and Forecasting of Key Functions and Technologies for Automated Driving," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, May.

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