Effects of Volatility of Exports in the Philippines and Thailand
There have been numerous studies on the relationship between volatility of exports and economic growth. Most of these studies have used cross-section data. Recently, some studies have used time series data to study the relationship. However, there have been no studies which have used the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methodology to study export volatility. This paper fills the void and uses quarterly data for the Philippines and Thailand to study the effects of export volatility. We find that for both countries, the shock to volatility of growth of exports is permanent. Also, past volatility is significant in predicting future volatility.
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Volume (Year): V (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
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- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-28, July.
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